NFL Week 10 Thoughts, Notes, and Statistics
42 Likes last week. Thank yall so much
Hey Everyone,
Another week, another great performance by y’all and your likes. 42! are you serious? Thank you. In the end, all I ask is that if you find my work useful, please consider tapping that like button <3 It legit helps me grow and motivates me.
Week 9 Quick Review:
ATL Passing was ~fine, but Mooney, Ferguson, and Dowdle all hit!
Addison had a very solid game, but not as many yards as i would like, Colts looked awful offensively
LAC Passing w Johnston and Palmer hit HARD >>>>
Chicago passing missed HARD Williams has really struggled lately.
Waddle miss :( but Tyreek kinda hit
Now, lets get into it! As voted in Week 8, stats first. I intend on publishing a “Recap” on how to read my tables/the math behind everything on Substack at some point (per
recommendation). Busy life lately, but I promise it will SOON be a thing. For now, whenever i color something green → that means good. Purple doesn’t always mean bad, but means worse than green.Probability Tables
Model doesnt know Tlaw is hurt or any injuries that arent at least a game old
PWOPR
The Other Tables
XTD Table ← the people love this table
Route Based Heroes ← SO LEGIT
Coach, I was Open ← ALSO LEGIT
Predicted Pass attempts over expectation
This is a weird table, the general thing to think about is teams greater than 1 are expected to throw the ball more than they have over the last 3 weeks. Teams less than -1 are expected to throw the ball less than they have over the last 3 weeks. The Ravens this week are a great example of the models intentions: Weeks 7+8+9 the avg 26.3 attempts and had 33 against CIN on TNF.
Passing MOFOS
Quick important note: for defense, MOFO and MOFC is defined as SHOWING MOFO/MOFC and subsequently PLAYING MOFO/MOFC. So if you show 1 and play another, that gets separated into its own category. That’s how the Lions show up on both. Hopefully that makes sense.
Sicko Mode SGPS
As I always say, I am not a professional gambler nor am I even really “good” (in the conventional sense) at gambling. Just a guy that likes to create models and try to predict the future with those models. I never put large amounts of $ down and diversify my bets. I bet WAY more aggressively than your average bettor (I almost never bet less than +1000 on anything).
ATL vs NO
The Story:
New Orleans has the 2nd worst PFF team pass rush grade over the last month and the WORST PFF coverage grade. Run defense is also abysmal. They also traded away their best coverage defender. I could go on but the idea is their defense is bad bad not just bad.
If there is going to be a bright spot on NO’s offense, it will be Tipton (RBH, FRB)
Kirk Cousins is a Passing MOFO. Mooney leads team in targets in MOFO
The Bet: I did ATL -5.5, Tipton 50+, Mooney O 57.5, Cousins 250+ at +2400 on DK
ATL Alt Spreads up to -10.5 imo.
Tipton Alt lines up to max imo depending on your aggression levels
ATL Passing as far as you are comfortable tbh. Model shows an 8% edge on DK up to 300+
not sure what players to hone in on ATL side but Mooney seems like a solid bet
Super Aggressive Inverse Cor Bet: Cousins 300+, Tipton 80+, ATL -8.5 → +15000
PHI vs DAL
The Story:
Its a sad time to be a DAL fan, and PHI might just make it sadder. Eagles are 1 of 2 teams in the tail events model with a 10%+ edge at 275+ passing this week. Eagles D is getting strong as Judah points out here. It could be a bad day for DAL
AJB is healthy! Hurts is a Passing MOFO/C. AJB is a MOFC slayer and massive boost to the passing offense in general
Gainwell is an XTD boi so if you want a weird TD scorer esp if you think PHI wins by a lot there ya go
Tolbert is a CIWO this week, but im probably just betting the onslaught of PHI
The Bet: Hurts 250-275+, AJB max alts, maybe eagles spread or Gainwell TD
Eagles spreads. I dont hate alt spreads here but dont love them at the current price
AJB alts max when they get posted.
Hurts 250+ and 275+
Weird bet i just placed: Hurts 275+ & Gainwell TD…. +4200
CAR vs NYG
The Story:
Model has 14%+ edge for Young at 225+ and 250+. Model thinks he is catching on to how to play QB on his tiptoes! Previously, the model did this with Herbert, Daniels, and Lamar and was right.
Nabers is in a ~Chase-like~ position this week. RBH with a need for positive regression against a bad pass rush unit. This does matter especially in this case since the Giants and Daniel Jones is so susceptible to pressure.
The Bet: Panthers +8.5, Young 200+, Nabers 100+ at +1000
Nabers max alts and multiple TDs maybe?
Young passing 225+ and maybe even some PANTHERS spreads (pure model based)
Legette/Sanders are ~semi high target earner in MOFC situations
Aggro Bet: Young 250+, CAR ML, Nabers 120+, JT Sanders 40+
Quick Weird One: NYJ vs ARI
ARI is the other team with 10%+ at 275. MHJ is RBH this week
NYJ passing in both my tail event models. Adams and G. Wilson GREAT SIGNS
Could be a shootout even if it doesn’t feel like it should be
Bets: Passing on both sides, MHJ, G. Wilson, and Adams in that order
Not Enough Space:
Bills Alt Spreads, Pierce bring back, Cooper alts if you think hes healthy
LAC Passing again. Pass funnel Titans (per PFF grades). Titans run lots of MOFO Will Dissly is CIWO and 2nd best target earner in MOFO. Dobbins also CIWO and high target earner in MOFO. Herbert passing + Dissly + Dobbins receiving
Lions Rushing shows up as a +EV move in my models. I like the idea of getting weird with HOU receiving (maybe Metchie or Nico if he plays) and DET rushing. DMONT is an XTD boi & BOSS too.
No models, but Dolphins feel ready for an explosion game
Some Players I like:
Malik Nabers: RBH + BOSS — explosion incoming
Tyreek Hill: SCM, FRB, RBH, XTD, Rams 7th in MOFC on szn, 2nd over 4 wks
George Pickens: SCM, FRB, not on the XTD table but CLOSE
Alec Pierce: great BOOM, best WR on the team against MOFO, RBH
Xavier Worthy: SCM, FRB, and CIWO
Weird Longshot - Jalen Nailor: great against MOFO ← may not keep
Weird Longshot - Dyami Brown: great against MOFC ← may not keep
Weird Longshot - John Metchie III: CIWO sneaky play + great PFF separation percentile on small sample + Lions allow lots of single coverage situations
Thank you for reading this far! I feel like i have been on a heater in recent weeks! Hopefully, you have been doing well too. If you find this information valuable, all i ask if that you like this post <3. It is shockingly easy. Ask the 42 [FOURTY TWO!] people who did it last week.
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Go Dawgs! Beat Ole Miss
The Metchie one was spot on! Keep the weird ones coming.