NFL Week 11 Thoughts, Notes, and Statistics

There are around 400 NEW subscribers this year. Thank yall.

Hey Everyone,

I hope you are all doing well and getting excited for the upcoming holiday season. Not many people have seen it yet, but I created a little “glossary” of sorts for my models and acronyms. Last week’s post got 35 likes! which is awesome.

As always, all i ask is that if you find my content valuable just tap that like <3. It helps me out a ton. My goal for the season is to break 50 likes at least once!

Week 10 Recap:

Some pretty solid calls if i do say so myself! but also some misses

• Eagles story was spot on… TOO MUCH… Eagles pulled starters at the beginning of the 4th which ruined some of the bets

• ATL passing was great! but ATL was not lol NO had a spark last week. Speaking of which, MVS space jammed Tipton or something.

• CAR spreads was spot on but Nabers did not capitalize on his 10 targets.

• ARI passing was a good call! but again, they built such a lead that is didnt matter. NYJ passing was BAD.

• Bills spread + Pierce bring back was a great call

• John Metchie III as a huge W for the process

Not sure who, but someone took my 3 question reader survey and wrote a nice response that i fully agreed with! I never claim to know everything (I do not), but i do claim to approach things in a different way than everyone else you listen to.

Their unedited response to the open ended question:

“I was listening to JMtoWin on one of his recent OWS podcasts and he was saying that much of his early MLB DFS success he credits to the data he was using. He goes on to say that it wasn't necessarily "better data" but it was "different data" compared to what the masses were using at the time. I say this not to say that your data is better or worse than what is already publicly available but that it IS different from what most people are looking at or using. In an environment such as NFL DFS where any edge one may have is most likely razor thin having a unique perspective (or data in this case) can be extremely beneficial. While I cannot be 100% certain that Koalaty Stats gives me such an edge, it does provide an opportunity to explore each slate through a lens that most aren't. At the very best, I potentially hammer the edge I've found (well..you found) and become more profitable. At the very least, I have cool new metrics I can nerd out with. Great work! and thank you!”

Probability Tables

Important note as we get later in the season. The model uses data from the season (with a heavy weight on recent information). The model cannot keep up with injuries as they are announced nor does it know about benchings (Say Flacco and AR5), all it knows is how the colts have played this season and in recent weeks. This is where human judgement comes in.

Model likes Lions less than Vegas but does not know FULLY about all of JAX injuries

PWOPR

The Other Tables

Coach, I was Open — Route Based Heroes — XTD Table

I was like… Hmm PHI #1 here weird, didnt feel like they passed it that much on TNF, but Hurts had 28 attempts and averaged 21.3 attempts from week 8-10.

All those tables and models gotta earn SOMETHING right? <3

Sicko Mode SGPs

As always, I implore you to think for yourself and create your own bets. I add mine as a thought exercise on getting models → bets. You can also do it for yourself!

Don’t forget, if you are like “hmmm idk what that means” There is a new little glossary!

DEN vs ATL

The Story:

• Models LOVE DEN passing in this game. Models also like ATL spread

• Both Javonte and Lil’Jordan show up as XTD players

• neither team shows up as a true ball hog or as a play waster … this is good and increases the games overall potential

• Bo Nix is not “special” against what ATL likes to run on defense. ATL runs a varied def, but sticks to C1, C3, C4, and C6. Nix is 19th in PFF grade vs those

• Sutton, Vele, and Williams are best on the team vs those coverages

The Bet +3700 on DK:

• Nix Passing 275+ & Sutton 60+ & Williams TD (crazy Lil Jordan) & ATL ML

SF vs SEA

The Story:

• The models also adore SF passing (and rushing). SF onslaught likely in play

• Jauan Jennings is an RBH, Kittle is a CIWO

• Highest total prediction from the models on the weekend

The Bet:

• As of writing this, there are not too many lines out on this game

• I would lean: SF passing, Jennings alts, Kittle up to 80+, and CMC rushing. Probably not ALL in the same bet.

DET vs JAX

The Story:

• Models like Lions passing and Rushing. Models also do not know about the collection on JAX injuries TOO well. So take that with a grain of salt. JAMO is an RBH.

• Lions should dominate and the Lions generally do not let off the gas until they score 40+. Note: This doesnt mean that the Lions WILL win by 40, but they will if they have the choice.

• Jax runs a lot of C1 and C2. DET throws to ARSB, LaPorta, and …. Khalif Raymond the most into those coverages? JAX also runs lots of MOFO, ARSB dominates targets here with JAMO #2 and LaPorta #3

The Bet:

• One Angle I like: Goff 275+ Gibbs rushing 120+ — +3600

• Another I like: Goff 275+ Gibbs Recy 50+ JAMO 100+ — +9000

IND vs NYJ

The Story:

• Gross weird one, but there are enough signs for me to be interested. Colts Rushing shows up as big upside in my models. JT is also a BOSS.

• Colts show up as a good aDoT situation for some deep passes and AR5 is back boi for better or worse.

• Jets have Garrett Wilson as the headliner for CIWO and DADams is a BOSS

The Bet (no props are out yet!)

• Colts Rushing through JT mostly but i dont mind adding AR5 here and there

• Wilson Yards + Adams TD

Quick Thoughts:

• LAC Passing is taking over some of the models. Bengals are the perfect team to allow for “push” games. Consider me interested

• Rams / Vikings/ Steelers / Bears show up as “passing upside” plays in the model. Just not as strong as teams i outlined already.

• Colts and Dolphins show up as rushing upside plays in the models!

• The BAL vs PIT game intrigues me, but i cant exactly put my finger on it.

  • Generally like the idea of Ravens passing + (Pickens | Austin) bring back

Players I like:

• Jonathan Taylor: BOSS, Team Rushing Upside

  • I like the idea that the Colts also connect on a deep pass or two while JT has a dominate game rushing. Inverse correlation bb

• Garrett Wilson: CIWO Headliner vs a MOFC team

• Nico Collins to the moon

• Keenan Allen: Dang it! hes having an AWESOME season relative to route level data and no one even knows. He has been getting open like a madman but Williams has been struggling pretty bad. Allen will pop off one of these weeks. Its very similar to Ridley… remember when i was harping on Ridley???

• Jameson Williams (JAMO)… RBH and LaPorta is OUT

• Weird one: Xavier Worthy… as everyone else has jumped off the wagon, idk… i kinda still like him? + in Week 10 he lead the NFL in difference between Predicted Targets (7.4) and Actual Targets (2). Watch out for a big game

• Weird one: Calvin Austin III … Austin might lose some snaps to Williams, but he is there speedster deep threat and they are likely going to have a few deep shots in a potential shootout.

• Weird one: Kayshon Boutte: RBH and good BOOM. Patriots have let it be known that younger players are getting more chances. Boutte has great underlying signs.

Here is a weird little table for the sickos out there

how_many = Routes with a target probability above 30%. So G. Wilson ran 14 routes with a target probability above 30% and garnered 6 targets resulting in an 8 diff

The table includes players from week 10 where the difference is greater than 5.

Anyways, thank you for reading my thoughts and notes! I hope you enjoy this content or at least find it valuable. If you do, pls dont forget to tap that like <3

If you made it this far and aren’t subscribed yet… well… uhhhh…

i dare you to click this button

Go Dawgs, Beat Vols