NFL Week 12 Thoughts, Notes, and Statistics

Dude! Week 11 was AWESOME

Hey Everyone,

I hope everyone is having a good week and excited for another week of football! The season is going by so quickly. Last week, I nailed my first published call of the year at +9000 which is pretty awesome! the implied probability of +9000 is ~1.1% so consider me proud. ALSO, Calvin Austin III hit hard on TNF from both the PFF articles i write. Lastly, if you need a glossary for my weird talk and models… here ya go!

Week 11 Recap:

• Denver passing was a GREAT call, but ATL spreads were NOT lol

• Lions passing and overall domination was a GREAT call. JAMO+Gibbs >

• SF passing was a bad call but Jauan Jennings was a GREAT model call

• IND vs NYJ was weird some stuff hit some didnt

• weird call Worthy hit hard!

With all that said, if you find my write ups enjoyable, helpful, or useful in anyway — Please like this post! It genuinely helps me out, and I do promise its incredibly easy. Even if you are reading this through email, its super easy and helps me tremendously.

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Probability Tables

Edge vs Draftkings table! remember, the model just knows how teams have played

PWOPR Tables

The Other Tables

Coach, I Was Open — Route Based Heroes — XTD Table

I highly recommend you check these out and read the articles or tables

All those tables gotta earn a like right? There is like ONE other content creator putting out juicy data driven info like this

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Sicko Mode SGPs

Last week we hit a +9000!!!! I’m so happy about that. Lets try to hit another big one this week.

CAR vs KC

The Story:

• This is kind of a stupid bet but KC has been getting worse and CAR has been getting better. CAR is coming off a bye and KC is coming off their first loss. as 10.5 favs CAR is going to “try to shock the world”

• Models LOVE CAR passing. likely because they will NEED to pass the ball to win as such big underdogs

• KC runs the 4th highest rate of MOFO over the last month. Jalen Coker is by far and away CAR’s WR1 in MOFO with an 82 PFF grade. Next highest is 66

• The panthers defense is also pretty bad and the old tail events model likes Chiefs passing.

The Bet:

• Young 250+ & Coker Alts… lines are not up yet but i will max it probs

• Might add a SINGLE TD scorer (Hubbard or Legette.. maybe even Young)

• Young 250+ & CAR ML & Coker TD +9500 is a SICKO mode bet

WAS vs DAL

• Daniels is a passing MOFC with a very good edge on DK for max props

• Scary Terry is SCM and CIWO, Noah Brown is an RBH and BOSS

• Cowboys have been ROUGH by almost any measure.

The Bet:

• Daniels 275+ & Terry 120+ & Brown 50+ (+3500)

• Daniels 275+ & Terry 100+ & Brown 90+ (+7000)

I added some more tables so ran out of space more quickly this week! so quick ones:

• Vikings, Cowboys, Chargers, 49ers all show up as passing upside plays in the model that i didn’t talk about in the bets above

• Romeo Doubs… even if theres a fire. he is on EVERY LIST THIS WEEK

• I bet on the Chargers to win the Super Bowl this past week. Great value +2500 imo

• I plan on posting more bets in the Discord this week closer to game time

• I like ARI passing this week. tails are okay and good signs for MHJ and McBride

• I like the idea of SF passing and Doubs bring back a lot

• not that i LOVE TEN passing but Ridley >>

• Weird one: Josh Palmer. Ravens like MOFO and Palmer is LAC’s MOFO destroyer

• Weird one: Juju Smith Schuster had a 3+ predicted target deficit last week

• Weird one: EAGLES PASSING, both AJB and Smith had massive deficits last week

I definitely need to find a better way of assembling these lol tables take up a LOT of space, but i know people care about seeing those. I 100% don’t want to send more than one email a week. Reminder to like the post if you haven’t <3

Thank you for reading this! Go Dawgs, beat… UMass!