NFL Week 13 Thoughts, Notes, and Statistics

Hope you had a great Thanksgiving!

Hey Everyone,

I hope you had a great Thanksgiving and made some memories. We had 48 likes in week 12. SO CLOSE to my season long goal of getting 50 likes on a single post. As I always like to remind people — liking is so easy and legit helps me out. it helps me grow and gives me some extra motivation each week to bring yall my A-game.

We had some solid calls in Week 12:

• Bryce Young Passing & Panthers keeping it close (though i wanted the ML)

• Commanders passing / Scary Terry though it took a last second play lol

• Josh Palmer had a great opportunity based game but sadly didn’t produce

• McBride hit hard and Murray had his second most yards of the season

Thanksgiving calls weren’t terrible but also nothing outright hit. Jonnu was a massive hit but Jacobs rushing didn’t go as planned. Gibbs had 80 rushing yards in Q1 and like 7 the rest of the game. Reminder that i made a glossary for things if you need it. There is also a FAST GROWING Discord where i post some of my bets closer to gametime.

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Probability Tables

For new ppl: I created a QRF using the last ~7 weeks of data to predict Team Pass Yards, and Team Score. I can derive total and spread using the score model.

PWOPR Tables

For new people: PWOPR is a metric i created using route level PFF data. Basically, its just a Predicted WOPR on if a player SHOULD have been targeted but wasnt. its good.

The Other Tables

Route Based Heroes — Coach, I Was Open (not out yet! its in PFF editing) — XTD

The only two Passing MOFCs: Tua and Russell Wilson

Obligate to say: All those tables GOT to earn a like or sub right?

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Sicko Mode SGPS

AS A REMINDER. I am not a “good gambler” or anything. I am positive on the year, but that doesn’t mean I’m amazing or anything. I don’t mess with nor care about units etc. I just play what feels comfortable for me and it usually works. I am very aggressive with my bets. For those that may tail, i just want you to know what you are getting yourself into lol. I bet small $$$ and diversify.

Top Edges vs DK IN ORDER: Colts, Panthers, Cardinals, Broncos, Commanders

When i refer to things like “the #1 ___” or something i mean over the last month

ARI vs MIN (probs my fav tail to play this week)

• ARI has a 10%+ edge at 275+ passing yards this week. I havent calculated the exact hit rate on teams when they have a 10%+ edge but i do know that its good

• MHJ is a route hero, high BOOM, and CIWO. I hate betting on him cause he screwed me out of $3k earlier in the season lol but i will be betting on him HARD

• MIN is a pass funnel (from Judah) + MIN can put up points of their own causing the ARI simply need to throw the ball

• MIN is THE #1 MOFO team in the NFL. #2 at MOFO/MOFO. Murray is the #9 QB vs MOFO on the szn. McBride leads team in PFF grade (margin) and targets (Small margin) into MOFO.

• Justin Jefferson is an RBH and XTD player. feels like its gonna be one of those games he has 150+ and 2TDs

• Bet: Murray 275+ & JJ 120+ & JJ TD & McBride 80+ & ARI +3.5… +5000 / +3000 without the spread… I will be swapping MHJ in for McBride too

CAR vs TB

• CAR shows up at 10%+ edge in passing, and as was with all the QBs showing up with a 10%+ edge before, the model is thinking Bryce Young is good now

• TB runs average levels of both MOFO and MOFC. TB does run the #2 rate of Cover 3 tho. CAR has had so many different receivers play and not play tho its hard to tell if anyone has a preference into coverage vs C3. My best guess here is David Moore (XTD). Legette (CIWO) is also an option. Diversify!

• CAR is also average at both MOFO and MOFC rates. They do run MOFO→ MOFC at the #3 rate in the NFL tho and Baker is the 4th best QB in the NFL in that situation. With TB receivers being injured all the time its hard to tell who benefits from this. I’ll just bet Evans

• Bet: Young 275+, Legette OR Moore max props, Evans 100+ … +10000 I did both

LAC vs ATL

FWIW: my model does not like the VALUE here, but i like the play so here we are

• LAC is on the strong uptrend even with a loss to BAL last week. ATL is on the downtrend. Graph below per Judah.

  

• Fwiw, my models have this as a pick em

• Herbert is coming off a pretty poor performance as far as “reading a defense” goes. (in the CIWO for this week. check my twitter and PFF.com for when it comes out!) I expect him to rebound. BAL runs a very disguised defense (#3 rate in the NFL). The Falcons do not (#14 rate). ATL also has the 3rd worst pass rush win rate in the NFL. BAL with the 11th best QP rate. ATL with the 5th worst. My point is, there is a BIG difference between BAL and ATL even if “both defense have struggled”

• ATL does run middling MOFO and MOFC numbers so nothing to exploit there.

• LAC runs #2 MOFO rate and the #1 MOFO/MOFO rate. ATL receivers go: London | Mooney then Bijan as far as targets in MOFO/MOFO. Mooney is a First read beast.

• Model-wise i am VERY interested in Palmer and Johnston. Ladd is obviously the safest play and will get his targets. it would also be poetic since ATL fans will be furious that the Falcons didn’t somehow draft him (UGA guy).

• Bet: Herbert 300+ & Ladd 100+ & Johnston | Palmer max prop … +6000

• Bet: Herbert 300+ & LAC -5.5 & Johnston | Palmer max prop … +5000

• Bet: LAC -5.5 & Johnston | Palmer max prop & Mooney 80+ … +10000

Not enough space:

• Jamarr Chase and Tee Higgins have a GREAT MOFC matchup

• Box Nix is great against MOFC. Browns #2 at MOFC. Sutton is a beast. Denver would have been the next detailed write up with space.

• Weird play: Xavier Legette is a big CIWO from last week. David Moore had the largest difference between Actual Targets and Predicted Targets. Moore should get less this week. Doesn’t mean he WILL js.

• Weird one: Demario Douglas had the largest difference between Predicted Targets and Actual Targets. He should get more this week.

Thank you for reading my weekly Substack! I am very happy with the growth this year. I went from 77 subs to 541 at the time of writing this. every like helps. so this is your reminder :) Dont forget about the free discord! and also if you just feel like you want to support me, i have a $1 a month patreon where you get a nifty excel file as a bonus.

Go Dawgs! To Hell with Tech