NFL Week 14 Thoughts, Notes, and Statistics

WE BROKE 50 LIKES LAST WEEK

Hey Everyone,

WE BROKE 50 LIKES LAST WEEK! Thank y’all so much! It is the first time we broke 50 likes but hopefully not the last. Also, as i am typing this, we are about to break 600 subscribers!!! that is so awesome. I am glad everyone seems to enjoy these weekly notes and statistics. Excuse any grammar or typos… trying to send this without getting to re-read it.

Few reminders for everyone:

1. Here is a link to a glossary of the models and my shorthand if you need it.

2. I am NOT a professional gambler or anything but i do well for myself. I am very aggressive with my bets but never bet THAT much on anything. Feel free to tail at your own risk but also feel free to just use ideas from writeup and the tables <3

3. Liking & Sharing this post is the #1 thing you can do to help me <3

Week 13 + Thanksgiving + Black Friday Recap:

• Thanksgiving was a mixed bag of hits and misses but WE HIT AGAIN on a +3000 for Black Friday! Bowers is that dude

• I consider ARI passing a “process hit” since they passed it 45+ times and got close to 275+

• Bryce young + Legette was a great call!

• LAC passing was a BAD call… my wife gets on to me whenever i divert from the models

Feel free to join the FREE fast growing discord if you haven’t already. If you aren’t subscribed, might i interest you in subscribing? its free and doesn’t hurt a soul.

Probability Tables

For new ppl: I created a QRF using the last ~7 weeks of data to predict Team Pass Yards, and Team Score. I can derive total and spread using the score model.

PWOPR Tables

For new people: PWOPR is a metric i created using route level PFF data. Basically, its just a Predicted WOPR on if a player SHOULD have been targeted but wasnt. its good.

The Other Tables

Route Based Heroes — Coach, I Was Open — XTD

The Eagles are expected to pass the ball more than usual this week. With everyone focused on Barkley success… i am interested in Hurts Passing more than usual.

Sicko Mode SGPs

Could be a light day in the world of passing alts. only one team above 10% edge vs Draftkings at 275+! Panthers passing. Eagles in 2nd at 7%. next is NYG at 4%. Worst value i have seen all year from the model.

OTE likes: Bengals, Vikings, Chiefs, Cardinals

CAR vs PHI

• The ONLY TRUE passing edges of the week according to my passing yards model. Panthers passing. 10% across the board. Meaning that if you ran my simulations 10000 times and Vegas sims 10000 times, the Panthers pass the ball heavily 1000 MORE times. So this is a big edge, but its the only big edge. Same applies to Hurts passing at 7% instead of 10%.

• Without Coker, Legette is CAR’s best first read option. Legette is also an XTD with a 93rd BOOM percentile. meaning he has a good chance to outdo his yardage

• As far as a bring back goes — Barkley would cause a GREAT inverse correlation bet with a solid chance at breaking off some big runs and accelerating the game. DeVonta Smith has been a high BOOM player for a while but has been injured.

• Bet I did: Young 275+ & Legette 70+ & Legette TD … +3100

• Bet I did: Hurts 275+ & Young 250+ & Smith 110+ … +10000

SF vs CHI

• Purdy is a Passing MOFC. He is the best QB per EPA against MOFC and the Bears have run the 4th most MOFC since wk 9.

• picking a receiver is a bit funky tho. As i said on Bluesky : Kittle has the best PFF grade by a margin against MOFC. Jennings has the most targets. Samuel is a BIG positive regression candidate. In these situations i lean splitting my bets between Kittle and Jennings. Then separately parlaying Samuel with other receivers in need of positive regression.

• Rome Odunze is both a RBH and CIWO. Allen is a CIWO. Jennings aDoT is a 9.2 Kittles is a 9.8 … Bears allow a 9.5 aDoT. Samuel for example is 5.8

• Bet: Purdy 300+ & Jennings 80+ & Kittle 80+ & Guerendo TD … +4100

• Bet: Purdy 275+ & Jennings | Kittle 80+ & Rome 100+ … +6500

I am going to go a little longer in this post and see what happens. According to Substack, this will only affect the EMAIL so to read the entire thing, you may want to check out the app and read it there. Just wanna not cutoff any info for yall!

CLE vs PIT

• Both teams run a lot of MOFC and specifically they both run a lot of MOFC/MOFC meaning they show MOFC and then play MOFC. This is a very boom or bust pass defense and can lead to elite WR performances.

• Both Winston and Wilson are good against MOFC and both defenses cant seem to stop running MOFC.

• I am no weatherman (the discord knows), but it SAYS the weather should be pretty decent on Sunday.

• Pickens is in a great situation in particular. Browns allow a league leading aDoT and Pickens is a CIWO this week. Expect a few extra (likely deep) targets for Pickens

• Shockingly, Jeudy is not the Browns WR1 into MOFC/MOFC under Winston. Moore is. Jeudy is #2a and Njoku is #2b. Jeudy is a Single Coverage Monster tho

• My Bet: Winston 275+ & Wilson 275+ & Pickens 100+ & Moore 70+ … +2800

LAC vs KC

• BIAS ALERT: I legit cannot explain why. I just like the Chargers…. i just do. You cant stop me. I do think i have a case here tho. Let me explain.

• According to Sportsfolio Kings EDP: LAC has a better NET EDP per Drive than KC on the season. This is mostly a fundamentals thing.

• Both teams fall into the same tier according to Timo at PFF

  

• Palmer (explained later) has a GREAT matchup and positive regression potential for this game

• Herbert has not been AMAZING against MOFO/MOFO this year but he hasnt been bad.

• If the Chargers end up winning this game it will likely be because of Herberts arm, and Palmer making a few big plays in single coverage.

• The Bet: Herbert 300+ & LAC ML & Palmer 90+… +6000

• The Other Bet: I also see a world where LAC tries to run it into KC MOFO while taking shots to Palmer

  • Herbert UNDER 230.5 & Palmer OVER 90+ & Edwards OVER 10 rush attempts … +10000

  • Quick Note: as you can tell, i see the game going in a few different directions… its not about the most likely thing to happen. It is about the story that can happen that provides us the most +EV relative to the al-gore rhythm (and we all dance)

Players I Like:

• Josh Palmer — KC runs MOFO/MOFO at a super high rate. Palmer is not a target hog in these situations but he does have the 2nd most receiving yards by a hair when having HALF the targets as McConkey. RBH, SCM, and CIWO too.

• George Pickens — CIWO + Browns allow highest aDoT in the league i expect a few deep targets and Pickens will come down with a few of them

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba — great aDoT matchup. Best targets by a margin into MOFO. ARI runs top 10 MOFO.

• Garrett Wilson —RBH Headliner. No other reason. I just kinda like him against the grain. in the RBH article i wrote about how this is a terrible matchup for him, but idk… I am gonna send it.

• Calvin Ridley — REVENGE… CIWO Revenge. Single Coverage Monster CIWO Revenge. I expect a very good amount of targets to go his way.

• Trey McBride explained below

Player I want to talk about:

• Marvin Harrison Jr. — Okay so. small rant. MHJ was my last leg in a parlay early in the year to win $3k on a $10 bet </3 but he missed. So i have a weird bias towards betting/not betting on him. HE HAD 12 TARGETS last week and only got 60 yards. The opportunity is there and they will likely throw the ball his way again. McBride is the safer play and has great targets into MOFO/MOFO which SEA runs at a top 3 rate. Trust McBride… MHJ is the Boom or bust play

And with that we are done. From what i understand, you can only read this part if you have the app? so if you are reading this, dude it is SO EASY to press that little heart to like this post. What are you waiting for? <3

As always thank you for your support and for reading my content. We have hit a +9000 and a +3000 on the year already, lets hope for another!

Thank you,

Go Dawgs! Will Texas get a win against a team that finishes the year ranked? I hope not.