NFL Week 15 Thoughts, Notes, and Statistics
ANOTHER HIT LAST WEEK + Just moved 1000 miles and am typing this up
Hey Everyone,
Are you serious? We hit 70+ likes in our week 14 notes!!!! ANDDNDN ANOTHER HIT LAST WEEK. We have hit a +9000, +3000, and +4200 this year. Someone better at probability can tell you the likelihood of that is pretty low. I publish ~5 bets a week give or take. I am typing this as i arrived in the promiseland — Georgia. Finally back home from a 5.5 year life in Philly. With that said, gambling/bets are a bit different here. I will explain later, but the important part is that i am writing this after a 12 hour drive and packing/unpacking. This is dedication lol. We hit 70+ likes last week, but after driving 12 hours and typing this in this moment…. i beg of yall. can we please hit a 100 this week? This is a longshot. I know it probably wont happen. After i finish typing, we will have roughly 12 hours until games start.
All i ask is that if you appreciate these posts, the hits that have happened this year, the dedication of me typing this after a 12 hour drive. pls like this <3 Now, LETS GET IT
Probability Tables
For new ppl: I created a QRF using the last ~7 weeks of data to predict Team Pass Yards, and Team Score. I can derive total and spread using the score model.
PWOPR Tables
For new people: PWOPR is a metric i created using route level PFF data. Basically, its just a Predicted WOPR on if a player SHOULD have been targeted but wasnt. its good.
Removing injuries is annoying and i will get to it eventually, but today it not that day
The Other Tables
Route Based Heroes — Coach, I Was Open — XTD
+2 is a shockingly high number in this model
Sicko Mode SGPs
I format my taeks around the bets i make so BIG FYI — the bets i will be doing HAVE to involve 2 teams AND i cannot stack multiple things about a single player. So for instance:
i cannot do AJ Brown TD AND AJ Brown 100+ yards
I would have to do ONE of those options AND stack it with another player on a different team
this sucks but it might lend itself to some interesting bets/odds if i play my cards right
I placed one STUPID NON RESEARCHED BET before i moved from Philly:
Hurts 275+, Hurts TD, AJB 90+, Smith 90+
10%+ Passing Edge at max prop vs DK — NO, PIT, ARI, NYG — 9%: DEN, IND, NE
Bet I Did: Nix 270+ & AR5 240+ & R. Wilson 260+ & Murray 250+ FLEX on UD for +8190 but i can get 3 right for +1400
I AM NOT A WEATHERMAN SO WATCHOUT FOR WEATHER
IND vs DEN
Both teams show up with massive passing edges vs DK in my tail events model. IND in particular should pass the ball more than usual. With, AR5, these are likely going to be some deep attempts vs man.
Josh Downs as a 90 PFF grade vs the blitz and is in line to play this week!
Colts run top 7 MOFC and top 4 MOFC/MOFC. Sutton is by far the target in these situations. Colts lead NFL in C3, Vele has DEN best PFF grade vs C3 but Sutton leads in Targets.
Bet I did: AR5 250+, Down 100+, Sutton 100+ for +5000
Bet I did: Nix 300+, Sutton 110+, Downs 100+ for +7820
Last bet I did: Vele 7+ Receptions and Downs 100+ for +8160
ARI vs NE
BOTH in Tail Events model. NE seems boring but coming off BYE with Maye… idk… boring might just be the move
MHJ has a million signs again… im sure its nothing
NE runs a lot of MOFC and MOFC/MOFC where MHJ is ARI best PFF graded player and good targets
ARI runs a lot of MOFO decent MOFO/MOFO where no one really stands out. Austin Hooper is best PFF grade. Boutte is most targets.
Bet I did: Murray 290+ & MHJ 110+ & Boutte 70+ for +10000
Lesser bet i did: Murray and Maye 250+ & MHJ 100 for +2260
PIT vs PHI
PIT GREAT signs in the tail events model. likely from vegas “overestimating” PHI DEF
Eagles run top 10 MOFC with BY FAR the #1 rate in MOFO → MOFC rate. I BET you cannot guess who the #1 QB in the NFL vs MOFO → MOFC is? yep. Its Wilson!
Pickens out but Mike Williams has a GREAT PFF grade vs MOFO→MOFC
AJB and Smith are model players this week. AJB is jokering it up so that means epic game incoming.
Bet I did: Wilson 280+ & Williams 60+ & AJB OVER 13.35 .5 PPR FP for +4912
Players I Like
MHJ i guess… he has a lot of good signs, but mannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn
AJB x 10000 for all of the reasons
R. Wilson passing!
Josh Downs >
Okay… I need to go to bed. Been up for a while.
if you find these useful or helpful, all i ask is for a little ole like. Having been up for 19 hours driving 1000 miles and dead dawg tired. maybe I am crazy but lets try to break 100 likes. lets just try. we got to 70 last week. we hit a +4200 last week. lets do it.
The FREE Discord is a great place to ask questions and talk with other people and sometimes i post my bets that i don’t have time for here.
Goodnight and Go Dawgs!
Welcome back. Go Dawgs!