NFL Week 16 Thoughts, Notes, and Statistics
80 LIKES AND $10,000 HIT WHAT A WEEK
Hey Everyone,
Last week was INSANE. Technically, another published bet hit! My “STUPID NON RESEARCHED BET” hit! Funny enough, it was my last bet in Philly so i put a little more money on it than normal ($220) AND IT HIT. So i ended up winning $10,000! my first time winning 5 digits (i normally do not bet enough to have a shot at 5 digits). Now, I live in Georgia where “Sportsbetting is illegal” so my bets will be formatted a bit differently than normal. PLEASE take that into consideration if you decide to tail.
As always, i am NOT a gambler at heart. I am a statistics and data science guy that likes to risk a few bucks here and there.
Last week yall stepped up HARD and gave the post 80 likes. I am so thankful. As always the #1 way you can support FREE content like this is by liking and sharing. It really does help me grow and gives me that extra bit of motivation to try a little bit harder each and every week.
Lets get into it.
Probability Tables
For new ppl: I created a QRF using the last ~7 weeks of data to predict Team Pass Yards, and Team Score. I can derive total and spread using the score model.
PWOPR Tables
For new people: PWOPR is a metric i created using route level PFF data. Basically, its just a Predicted WOPR on if a player SHOULD have been targeted but wasnt. its good.
Removing injuries is annoying and i will get to it eventually, but today it not that day
The Other Tables
Route Based Heroes — Coach, I Was Open — XTD
All this table/model is saying: The Colts are expected to throw the ball 1.85 more times than they have over the last 3 weeks. The Raiders are expected to throw the ball 4.26 times LESS than they have over the last 3 weeks.
Sicko Mode SGPs
Quick Note: While i would LOVE to get yall Xmas bets and research out. I am back home for the holidays and plan on spending time with my family. I MAY… MAY do some light research and put a bet or two on the Discord, but there won’t be a Substack post before Xmas.
CAR vs ARI
Young has a 16% passing edge versus Draftkings odds. This is a VERY high number. This means that if we ran 10,000 simulations of the game my simulations have Young passing for 275+ 1600 MORE times than Draftkings simulations
ARI runs a top 4 MOFO rate in the NFL. 10th most MOFO/MOFO. Thielen and Coker are by far CAR’s best receivers in MOFO situations.
ARI is the #2 team at NOT ALLOWING single coverage situations. in these situations Chuba Hubbard sees an uptick of ~6% in his target share.
CAR runs a top 10 MOFC rate. Trey McBride is ARI’s best MOFC player but MHJ is a close 2nd. eyeroll into hell because MHJ will probably screw us again.
McBride is a big XTD player. Coker is emerging. If Coker is OUT, SUB Thielen in and feel okay about it.
UD Bet: Young 270+ & Coker 80+ & Hubbard 4+ receptions & McBride TD … Odds are in multiples — 47x
Also did: Young 250+ & Coker 50+ & MHJ 51+ & McBride TD & Hubbard 3+ receptions for 24.6x
PHI vs WAS
Philly is the team that won me $10,000 and the models are not biased towards them i swear. 10%+ edge at 225+, 250+, and 275+
AJB is still in need of positive regression. WAS is a great spot for him too. Check out my route based heroes article for more info on that.
The Eagles run by far the most MOFO → MOFC in the NFL. Daniels PFF grade goes from an 85 PFF grade (versus all other MOFO/C) to a 71 versus MOFO → MOFC. This is a general weak spot for him though he does not DRASTICALLY fall off
Hurts max alts + AJB max alts… i dont really like anything else here. I will be combining it with other teams outside of the game. I did: Hurts 280+ & AJB 130+ & Bryce Young 208+ for 50x
Substack is telling me that the post is getting too long for an email. So if you are reading on email and it cuts off at any point, you may need to get the app. Just a heads up.
NE vs BUF
Okay so hear me out. NE has an 11% edge versus DK implied odds for Maye to pass for 275+. NE are big underdogs who will need to air it out to win. I think NE will want to prove a point and will try hard (always hard to tell with bad teams)
Bills run middling MOFO and MOFC rates so no advantage here.
Boutte has been a route base hero for like a month now. WHY NOT BREAKOUT NOW
I dont really have much else to hype up about the Patriots here. its a PURE model play on both Maye and Boutte
Keon Coleman is coming back and had a big play last week. I expect more big plays this week and hes a model player
Bet I did: Maye 280+ & Boutte 60+ & Coleman 70+ at 146x
another: May 250+ & Boutte 50+ & Coleman TD
Other Bets I did:
Maye 260+ & Hurts 260+ & Young 260+ at 125x
Players I Like:
Zay Flowers MOFC destroyer + RBH
AJB RBH + Eagles passing edge + The Joker always strikes when you least expect him
I love the idea of Coleman this week upping his route % and having an impact
Bryce Young has been tearing it up. Coker might be back.
Welp, that’s it for this week! Thank you so much for reading my Substack. If you enjoy my content, have made any money, or just simply like me… PLEASE i beg of you like this post <3. Ask the 80!!!! people who liked it last week. It was not too hard.
I do want to say. I have been on a ROLL lately. like an insane hot streak. There is no way that holds forever. Heck it will more than likely end this week. I hope people understand that this Substack is more about the process/statistics that tailing or anything like that. I do high leverage bets where my models give me a few % edge here and there. we are talking 10% or less on most bets.
Anyways, thank you. Pls like <3
I hope you are your family have a great Christmas and holiday season.
Go Dawgs… Beat…. Touchdown Jesus? or whatever a Hoosier is… idk yet? we shall see tonight
Thankya - good stuff as always, mate