NFL Week 17 Thoughts, Notes, and Statistics
4 Weeks IN A ROW ABOVE 50 LIKES
Hey Everyone,
The Substack growth this season has been insane. I started this season with 77 Subscribers. I now have 667. Thank you so much! This season has been my craziest season of all time. We have hit on a published: +9000, +4100, +3000, and +4200. Truly an insane season. I already cannot wait for next season. I have some plans to expand my DFS content and my models. If you have any ideas that could improve my content or models. Could be new kinds of content that don’t exist, ways to look at matchups, etc. I strongly prefer to be hyper unique but i mostly want to be useful to both y’all and me. You can answer this survey and bullet point your suggestions!
More importantly tho, we only have two regular season weeks left. So please click that like button! Remember, its the #1 way you can help a small content creator. It is FREE to do and legitimately very easy.
Week 16 Recap:
GREAT call on Maye and Boutte. Sadly because of my less than consumer friendly state-laws (Georgia) I had to add Keon Coleman and ruin my bet.
Carolina passing was not a great call :( i def thought that was the bet of the week
AJB had 14 targets and a great game (could have been better). Hurts got injured very quickly and ruined any of those passing bets
Okay, with all that… hit that like button and LETS GET IT
Probability Tables
Note on the table above: TB has the best probability of winning by more than 5.5, BUT this probability is LOWER than Draftkings (whos spread is 8). Important to take note of.
PWOPR Tables
PWOPR is an awesome statistic that i created. It outperforms WOPR in every way using route level PFF data. BOOM is a model i created to predict if a player should get more receiving yards than they are used to in a given week (using PWOPR).
The Other Tables
Route-Based Heroes WILL BE POSTED ON PFF so go read it! (ill post the link on my Twitter and my Bluesky if i remember) RBH is imo, the best model i do. In case anyone was curious. so go follow those accounts <3
The below table is normally what i post in the Coach, I Was Open article. These players are likely to get more targets than usual this week.
The Table below is my Passing Edge versus Draftkings table. Basically, if we run 10,000 simulations of a game the % in this table represents the % of sims that team had MORE passing yards than DK did. So for example: The Cowboys had 275+ passing yards 1470 more times in my model than they did in DK’s implied sims. These models include the last 4 weeks of data and do not have great injury context. So take that into consideration. If a starter is out, my model DOESNT KNOW, or if a starter is coming back after a few weeks, my model DOESNT KNOW. Kirk Cousins is a good example, the model only has one week of context with Penix and 3 weeks with Cousins
The model has been solid on the year. When a team has above 10% or approaches 10%, it gets my attention.
This model is weird but the basic idea is: The Colts are expected to throw the ball 1.62 MORE times than they have over the past 3 weeks. The Giants are expected to throw the ball 4 LESS times than they have over the past 3 weeks.
Sicko Mode SGPs
As always:
I AM NOT a profession gambler or anything. I do not put a lot on any given bet and i diversify. I make it so that all i need to do each week is hit a SINGLE bet to be massively profitable relative to the amount i put in
If you tail, you NEED to know. I have to bet on more than one team and i cannot bet on more than one attribute per player
so for example, i have to bet on two teams AND i cannot do Jalen Hurts Passing yards & Jalen Hurts rushing yards. Simply not allowed.
For this reason, maybe dont tail me down to every detail. I kind of hate it
Anyways, go ahead and like this post and lets get into the SGPs
DAL VS PHI
DAL has a MASSIVE passing advantage this week according to the model. DAL is going to try their best to win and that will likely mean a lot of pass attempts.
CD Lamb being out is a big hit but not world ending in my opinion.
Eagles run the 16th highest rate of MOFO and 16th MOFC lol so no coverage tips
Eagles do run a lot of Cover 6 and Cover 4 which Rush is better at than most coverages. (61 PFF grade normally → 65 against C4 +C6 so not crazy better but better)
The two biggest benefactors in C6 and C4 for DAL are: Mingo and Schoonmaker with 5%+ increase in the TPRR (just spitting the facts). This situation is tough to read with CD out. Ferguson appeals to me a lot tho
The Bet: Cooper Rush 270+ & Jake Ferguson 80+ & AJB OVER 11.85 .5 PPR (If i was betting in Philly, not sure i would add AJB) at 44x
LAR VS ARI
LAR is expected to throw the ball more than normal based on the model
with LAR’s pass catchers, they have a massive right tail.
Cooper Kupp gets a lot targets in MOFO and ARI runs a lot of MOFO (5th most) with the 7th worst PFF team coverage grade.
MHJ is a Route Based Hero and cant let us down 15 times in row right? RIGHT?
MHJ and McBride are at the very TOP of the XTD model both need about 2 TDs right now
The Bet: Stafford 300+ & Cooper Kupp 100+ & MHJ 80+ (remember I HAVE TO BET on more than one team) but i do actually like this one. 111x
small bet: Kupp 80+ & McBride 2 TDs at 54x
small bet: Kupp 80+ & MHJ 2 TDs at 70x
WAS VS ATL
WAS has a big passing advantage at 275+ in the model (11%+)
ATL runs one of the lowest disguise rates in the NFL. Daniels is a MONSTER when the defense does not disguise (#2 QB in the NFL)
Zaccheaus leads WAS in TPRR vs no disguise. McLaurin and Ertz leads the team in raw targets.
Kyle Pitts is an XTD player. London shows up as a first read beast and Darnell Mooney shows up as a single coverage monster
The Bet: Daniels 280+ & Zaccheaus 70+ & Mooney 80+ at 61x
I dont mind swapping up Zach for Terry and Mooney for London either
another small bet: Daniels 250+ & Terry 100+ & Pitts TD at 37x
DEN vs CIN
very competitive game where DEN is a passing model 10%+ edge.
Sutton is an RBH but has a TERRIBLE matchup. Javonte Williams and Vele has great PFF grades versus MOFO though.
Bengals have been a great team at pushing tails the whole season since they have had a middling defense but good offense
The Bet: Nix 320+ & Vele 5.5+ Receptions & Javonte 30+ receiving & Chase 100+ at 126x
Players I Like:
MHJ in theory…. ugh
Cooper Kupp!
Cooper Rush!
The COOPER BET: Cooper Rush 270+ and Kupp 100+ at 77x
Thank yall so much for following me! I hope that yall have had a good football season and good holiday season with family. See yall in the FREE DISCORD.
Pls like <3
Go Dawgs! Beat Touchdown Jesus!
No time to edit this i hope i dont look too stupid lol
Liberals tripping over themselves to mention BlueSky every time they mention X is the new "In this house, we believe..."