NFL Week 5 Thoughts and Notes
New side job... who dis?
Hey Everyone,
If you missed it, I am writing articles for PFF now! Before we get into it, if you press the subscribe or the like button, you will have good luck this week:
Sicko Mode - Statistical SGPs
BAL vs CIN:
Vegas is underweighting Jackson’s ability to explode in the passing game. He has been very good this season on a per play basis (6th best EPA per pass). They had the WORST passing game script last week and Jackson passed for 156 on 18 attempts (4th best EPA per pass). more volume and Jackson crushes.
CIN has a pretty bad rush D (5th worst), but i still believe Vegas is heavily underweighting BALs passing ability. CIN has the offensive ability to push the game anyways.
Not to Mention both Zay and Bateman are big regression candidates and Jackson has the 2nd best coverage adjust passing grade (PFF) vs what CIN likes to run.
The Bet +3900 on DK
Jackson 250+
Bateman 50+ (70+ if you crazy)
Flowers 70+
ARI vs SF:
SF has the #1 potential in the Tail Events Model. Not to mention ARI has the 3rd worst EDP allowed per passing heavy drive (drives with a PROE > 0) per SportsfolioKings.
ARI has a bad defense all around and i think SF should have their way
MHJ is in just the most blow up of blow up spots.
The Bet +4700 on DK
MHJ 110+
Jordan Mason 100+
Aiyuk 60+
some nice inverse correlation out here tho
NO vs KC:
Strong edge on the model vs DK at 250+
Both Olave and Shaheed are Single Coverage Monsters
Both have strong Predicted WOPRs (new metric will be in article next week)
My model doesn’t like KC as much as Vegas likes KC
Judah mentioned on the podcast that he likes the Saints for lots of different reasons. Go check it out here
Justin Watson has a 94th BOOM Percentile in the new model with ~38 projected yards AND Rice is gone so potentially more targets to go around
The Bet (lots of different options here but if you combine everything below its like +25000)
New Orleans ML
Carr 250+
Olave/Shaheed 70+ really up to you
Crazy Leg: Justin Waston 70+?
WAS vs CLE:
King Jayden Daniels has a massive edge on DK at 250+ and 275+
Scary Terry is both a Single Coverage Monster AND a First Read Hero
I dont hate the idea of an Amari Cooper ‘Bring Back’ at 80+ or something but I’m not going to touch it since i got value earlier in the week.
The Simple Bet (I got +3300 on DK but its +2400 as i check it now):
Jayden 275+
Terry 110+
Players I like
MHJ
Terry McLaurin
Zay Flowers lesser degree: Rashod Bateman
Jakobi Meyers > >
Jordan Addison
Olave/Shaheed
The “I need to pay for a wedding” Parlay:
Imagine you are a young man needing to pay for a wedding. A parlay like this could really help you out.
Addison 60+
Wilson 70+
Zay 60+
Bateman 50+
MHJ 70+
Meyers 60+
Terry 80+
+259820 on DK. I was up a little late and just thought it would be a fun low $ data driven bet.
Predicted WOPR
I feel bad because i honestly dont have the time here to explain my new models and why they are so awesome. You will have to stay tuned for the PFF article next week!
Here is the method i will be discussing more in the article. X Recv Yards is just a median prediction based on their 3wk Predicted WOPR and 50th Percentile Team Passing Yards.
Decent BOOM and Decent Predicted WOPR
Good BOOM and Decent Predicted WOPR
Single Coverage Monsters
Players that benefit from SC the most and who play top 10 SC allowed teams
First Read Heroes
Players that benefit the most from being the first read against defenses that allow targets to the first read the most (top 10)
Score Model
Model likes Saints, Cardinals, and Patriots a good amount more than Vegas
Potential
85th - 50th to see how easy it is to push a team to a tail event.
Bonus SGP for the people who stuck around. If you stuck around, lets make a deal. You subscribe and I will give you a bonus SGP to wake up to on Sunday…
its a nice free deal
MIN vs NYJ
Addison is a big breakout contender for this week in BOOM and Predicted WOPR
Wilson is one of the BIGGEST BOOM Percentile players
Big Vikings edge at 250+ and 275+
The Bet:
Wilson 90+
Addison 60+
Darnold 275+
+3082 on FD (i had a free bet to use)
Welp, thats it! thank you and have a good weekend everyone. Follow me on Twitter if you don’t already and make sure to subscribe here on Substack for more cool insights. I have access to a prettyyyyyy great dataset now.
If you feel like giving me a tip or something… I have a Patreon where you can support what i do for $1 (or more!) a month!
Joe, have been deployed but congrats on PFF and awesome to see you continue doing great things. I was hoping to keep you a secret but cats out of the bag.
-BallaB
No BOSS for week 5?