NFL Week 6 Thoughts, Notes, and Statistics
An early drop????? Heck yeah its an early drop.
Hey Everyone,
How about those calls in week 5??? not half bad if I do say so myself. I do want to remind people that I am not a gambler just a guy doing some math, models, and statistics. I like to be risky and I do not place a lot of money on any individual bet or game. If you do feel generous after hitting a bet and want to support what I do pls, just subscribe to my Substack, like this on Substack, or for people with Twitter… go Retweet a tweet of mine. I cannot express just how much that helps me out when people do it. Seriously, just hit that like button to feel something. Lastly, before we get into it, my second PFF article is AWESOME and you should read it.
Sicko Mode SGPs
I wont actually get to sit down and place my bets until you are reading this. So I am going to give some themes without any actual bets this time around.
BAL vs WAS
I mean if you didn’t think i was going to immediately go to this game with how the models have treated both teams all season idk what to tell ya. Easily my fav spot of the week
The Story:
BAL and WAS #1 total according to my score model
Both teams have an underrated pass game still and both teams have top 7 pass EPA defenses allowed. BAL def top 5 in stopping the run via EPA per run. WAS middle of the pack.
Both teams are top 10 in showing MOFO (middle of field open) and then playing MOFO. Daniels is the #1 QB by a MARGIN in PFF grade when facing MOFO/MOFO … Lamar is about average.
Tons of reasons for this game to be heavy in passing. Biggest worry would be the WAS/CIN effect where there are not a lot of big plays and teams hold onto the ball the whole time.
The Bet:
Jayden Passing … imo 275+ isnt a stretch maybe even 300+ if you truly believe
Scary Terry light alt (maybe alt reception). Ertz with the second best underlying stats in this matchup.
Luke McCaffery alts maybe all the way if you believe in his ability of getting open. New Model expected ~30 yards from him with a 46th percentile BOOM. (anything above 40th i consider good)
WAS ML or alt spreads
Bring back with Bateman for big play exposure (50+). Zay is also a good choice but i like Bateman relative to his lines more.
LAC vs DEN
The Story:
Ladd is in everywhere on Twitter. I am worried because lots of Twitter people are on Ladd for the same reason “hes good against man and hes about to play a man heavy team”. Ladd has other things going his way too, but im worried too many stars are aligning lol looking at your Marvin Harrison Jr last week.
Johnston is also a model guy and i kind of like the contrarian play oof him > Ladd
Herbert has been AWFUL against MOFC (middle of field closed) this year, but over the last 3 years he has been top 7 in the NFL. DEN runs MOFC at one of the highest rates in the NFL (#7).
Sutton is a great bring back in the bet (#3 Predicted WOPR) with Alpha status
DEN top 7 team at in stopping the run via EPA per run allowed. Chargers top 3 team. Both teams are very good defenses which should suppress props, but I do have a feeling this could be one of those games we look back on and think “how did that happen?”
The Bet:
Heavy Ladd alts, but honestly i don’t love the odds. not sure I would go past 80 and again, i kind of like the idea of Johnston. Personally I ADORE LADD (Go Dawgs).
Herbert 250+ to feel something
Either pushing alts on Johnston or Palmer. Johnston has a higher actual WOPR but Palmer is in stronger “positive regression” territory
Sutton 70+
DET vs DAL
The Story:
Cowboys run top 5 MOFC defense in the league. Goff has been slightly above average in his career. Lions run about 50/50 MOFO and MOFC
Jameson Williams is DET WR1 in PFF Grade against MOFC and has positive regression signs from the model and tables. ARSB has 2x more targets in MOFC tho (important to note)
DET runs a lot of Cover 4 and Cover 1. Dak has been pretty awful in his career and this year against those two coverages.
The Bet:
DET -5.5
Jameson alt yards (55th BOOM percentile), 50 projected yards & ARSB alt receptions for inverse correlation
Lamb bring back… i dont mind getting crazy here hes on the cover of the new article
Not sure i want to do any passing lines here tbh
NYG vs CIN
The Story:
DK has Daniel Jones 275+ passing at 15% (+550) my model has him at 34%. Nabers being out hurts but i think that helps the prop be a bit lower than maybe the game environment suggests.
This is a pure model play
Hyatt has 98th percentile BOOM and with a predicted receiving yards of 13 (this is not good lol). his Adot using Predicted Share is a whopping 18.8. I don’t mind a bet on a big Hyatt play.
The Bet:
DJ passing alts
Hyatt big play (50+ and TD?)
Slayton WR1 while Nabers is out
fun bet could be: Hyatt 50+ TD under receptions & Wandale alt receptions but under yards
could add more if you want but that’s probably it
Players I Like
Ladd McConkey
I guess Marvin Harrison Jr again… I missed a $3k win last week because of him though (he does have good breakout signs again)
Mack Hollins (maybe)
Luke McCaffery (he open a lot in a potential shootout)
Jameson Williams
Tank Dell
Jalen McMillan if healthy
CeeDee Lamb
Model Based Round Robin
I have a secret that I have not told yall. I love Round Robin bets. For those that do not know, A round robin bet is a strategy where multiple parlays are created by combining subsets of selections from a larger set, distributing risk and reward across various combinations, effectively leveraging the law of probabilities to increase the chance of partial returns while maintaining exposure to higher payouts.
Ladd 60+
AJB 80+
McMillan (if props exist) 50+
Jameson Williams 50+ (i dont mind pushing this a little)
Michael Wilson 60+ (if ya nasty)
Christian Kirk 60+
MHJ 70+
Basically, I am going to put most or all of these into DK and then go to Round Robin and put like $0.10 in for every possible combination of bets
Predicted WOPR Model
I seriously believe in this new model more than I have believed in any model EVER. Seriously. Important to note: the model doesn’t know about injuries. So players like Dotson will get affected by AJB and Smith returning.
These give us an idea of explosion players through new, unexpected opportunity. This can be super advantageous for us as Vegas doesnt know what didnt happen (but we do through the new model). The new model looks at every route and returns a probability if they should be targeted, we can derive a LOT of useful info from this.
Predicted WOPR represents (1.5 * Share of Predicted Targets) + ( .7 * Share of Predicted Air Yards). Predicted WOPR is more predictive and more stable than Actual WOPR.
Top Predicted WOPR players with a better Predicted WOPR last week than actual WOPR
Top BOOM Percentiles above .3 Predicted WOPR
Good BOOM, Good Pred WOPR, and Last Week Pred WOPR > Last Week Actual WOPR
Quantile Regression Forrest Probabilities
These give us a good idea of game environments and such.
Passing Yards
Spread Probabilities
Total
Single Coverage Monsters and First Read Beasts
These give us a good idea of players that could have explosion games through higher than normal target volume. These tables show us: Players who benefit from being in Single Coverage or being the First Read and their opponent’s defensive rank in allowing targets in those situations.
Thats it! These posts take a LOT of work and I send them out for free. If you made it this far and like these, let me know by liking it through the email or via Substack! seriously, people on Substack, it is SO EASY to press that like button.
If you want to follow me on Twitter or Patreon links are here.
Pls Subscribe <3, Share, or Like!