NFL Week 9 Thoughts, Notes, and Statistics

Y'all are INSANE.... 39 likes last week?!?!? Thank you.

Hey Everyone,

Y’all really are awesome. I did not explicitly ask for likes last week and y’all gave the week 8 post 39 likes. Thank you so much, that is special to me. Really, all I ask is that if you find my work useful or helpful, just tap that heart <3 its really not too difficult and it helps me grow.

I feel like we are kind of on a roll right now. Week 8 had some pretty great thematic calls like:

• Houston Passing (though Tank Dell kind of let us down)

• BAL vs CLE in general! Jeudy got 79 when i called 80 lol

• CIN vs PHL being more offensive than expected though CIN fell apart in the 4th and killed some bets

• ARI passing!

• MHJ, DeVonta, Sutton, Ridley… all smashing!

• I had some calls on Twitter that also went well!

As voted for in Week 8, 63% vs 37%. I am going to start showing off the statistics first and then move into Sicko Mode SGPs.

Probability Tables

I like to use these to get a sense of the slate at large. How do my models feel about a game vs the public vs Vegas etc. These are not “end all be all” by any means and injuries/benchings can change stuff quicker than my models typically can adjust for. I like to compare the probabilities to Vegas implied probs to see edge!

PWOPR

Current 3 Week PWOPR Leaders

Good PWOPR and Elite BOOM

Good PWOPR and Good BOOM

The Other Tables

Excuse any players that show their old team after trades. Trades ruin my tables for until i get data.

Route Based Heroes ← this model is legit and free

Coach, I Was Open ← this model is also legit and free

Single Coverage Monsters: Green is good (its how i do all my tables), These are players who see a boost in Target Share in Single Coverage Situations against teams who allow a lot of single coverage situations. So Ridley sees a boost of .17 to his target share in SC and the Patriots allow the most SC situations in the NFL. I typically do variables in rolling 4 week counts/avgs.

First Read Beasts: Similar to SC Monsters, these are players who see a boost in TS in First Read Situations playing teams that allow the most targets in first read situations. So Sutton sees a .13 boost to his Target Share when he’s the first read and BAL allows the 5th most First Read target situations.

XTD Table Link

Pass Attempts Over Expectation: New weird table. Basically, a model to predict “how many more or less pass attempts you will have this upcoming week relative to your last 3 weeks?” So the Viking are expected to throw the ball 1.77 more times this week than they have over the last 3 weeks. This Model is meant to give us a gauge of volume over expectation a little bit. I start to care when we break 1 or -1

NEW TABLES

I cannot promise to always come up with a new table every week, but y’all’s endless supply of likes is fueling me. Introducing the Passing MOFOS tables. Similar to the SC and First Read tables: these are QBs in the top 10 for EPA vs MOFO and MOFC defenses playing defenses that run MOFO/MOFC at top 10 rates. MOFO means 2 high safeties. MOFC means single high. Josh Hermsmeyer talks about defensive implications here.

So for example: Justin Herbert is a top 8 QB against MOFC playing the Browns who run MOFC at a top 2 rate in the NFL.

Sicko Mode SGPs

I wont be able to actually place any bets myself until after this is out (traveling). so no specific bets this week.

ATL vs DAL

• ATL has #1 tail prob in old tail events model with an 85th percentile of 300+

• Judah likes Falcons

• Ray Ray McCloud is a CIWO this week. Mooney decent BOOM

• ATL in good spot vs man which DAL likes to run | ATL in a good spot for quick pressure which DAL hasn’t been generating | Neither team is a big ball hog | Maybe some Rico rushing?

• Dak is a Passing MOFO (good MOFO rank against a MOFO def). Jake Ferg alts

The Bet:

• ATL Passing + ATL Spreads

• Ray Ray or Mooney alts with ATL passing?

• Bring back Rico rushing for big inverse boost

• Bring back Ferguson for more logical bring back

MIN vs IND

• Addison CIWO and RBH. JT CIWO. Pierce RBH and BOSS

• MIN in “VERY GOOD” territory for passing alts. Colts run lots of C3,C2, and C1. Darnold is top 6 vs those 3 coverages

• Pittman good BOOM

The Bet:

• Darnold Alts with Addison leading the way. I wouldn’t go past like 80+ and TD

• Pierce STRONG bring back. i will max alts with TD on some bets

• Pittman light alts

CHI vs ARI

• ARI pass defense just bad (#3 in EPA per pass given up). Entire defense bad tbh

• CHI will want to pass after a rough performance last week. This is PURELY a hunch but i think they will. (also good predicted Pass Att)

• Keenan Allen breakout game imminent CIWO. Odunze RBH. Both are Single Cov monsters. DJM is in need of TD from XTD table.

• check myself note: ARI runs top 7 MOFC and Caleb isnt GREAT against MOFC

• CHI with good old tail events model but not great. Bears EPA without QP is good against low QP this week

The Bet:

• Williams Alts (up to 275) with Keenan and Odunze.

• Bring Back could really be any ARI player between MHJ, Wilson, or McBride. I dont hate any of them.

LAC vs CLE

• Herbert good vs MOFC CLE runs a lot of MOFC. LAC PROE is on the rise.

• Ladd is elite vs man which CLE loves

• Simi Fehoko has all the signs of a breakout, but Johnston being back scares me from going all out. Both are RBH but might eat into each other.

• Jeudy bring back. as Dell popped on TNF, i think Jeudy got something to give

The Bet:

• Herbert passing alts with Jeudy bring back

• get weird with Fehoko but not too weird with Johnston back

• Leverage Johnston being back, maybe double stack with Ladd or Simi

Note enough room to get detailed:

• Denver Passing through Sutton with Bateman bring back (his lines will be low)

• Lions passing through ARSB with Doubs bring back but odds wont be special

• Personally I like LV passing this week but no good data reasons

General Plays I Like

• Keenan Allen: CIWO & great PWOPR

• Calvin Ridley: BOSS, RBH, SCM

• Jaylen Waddle: Cover guy! RBH, CIWO

• Jordan Addison: CIWO and RBH

• Xavier Worthy: BOSS

• Alec Pierce: RBH, BOSS, and good vs MOFO

• Jalen McMillan (PWOPR and film hunch)

• Simi Fehoko (to a lesser extent): 99th Percentile BOOM, CIWO and RBH, LAC PROE is up! Biggest issue will be if Johnston (RBH) is healthy and running his normal routes. Idk how that will affect the WR rotation.

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Oh and Go Dawgs.