THE THANKSGIVING SPECIAL
Happy Thanksgiving! Enjoy time with your families <3
Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!
We have been on a ROLL. I hope you are all looking forward to an awesome day of football and spending time with loved ones. I personally LOVE thanksgiving as i get to sit at home with my wife, eat the best food in the world (my wife’s cooking), and then fall asleep to Tommy DeVito vs Cooper Rush.
With that said, the week 12 post got 48 likes. That is INSANE. Thank yall. Might i ask, for this Thanksgiving Special, if you have never liked a post of mine before, give this one a like? See out it feels. Let the thrill of supporting a small content creator fuel you to go get some extra macaroni or sweet potato casserole.
The #1 way to help a small content creator is to just share and like their work. No matter how large or small of a platform you have. I put in some extra work this week to get this to you before the games. I hope you enjoy it.
Lets do it!
As I always say:
I am not a ‘gambler’ by trade or anything, i just do this for fun. I like stats and doing cool stuff no one has ever done before
I will put some bets that im doing but i am SUPER aggressive. I know people tail me and thats okay, but i miss like 95% of the bets i make because of how i bet.
I bet small amounts and diversify … i never worry too much if i miss or something
I have been posting more of my bets in the discord so if you wanna talk it out and stuff
Bad News: the tail events models show no significant edges for passing for any team.
CHI vs DET
The Story:
DET does not do anything schematically strange on defense. middle of the pack for MOFOs and such. Top 6 PFF coverage unit.
CHI runs the 3rd most MOFC rate over the last month. Targets go: ARSB, JAMO, LaPorta/Gibbs into MOFC for DET. DET excels at passing the ball when there is no quick pressure and the Bears have struggled to generate QP lately (15th best).
Josh Larky has the Bears as the #1 toughest matchup for slot WRs in the NFL and the Lions as the #2 easiest matchup for slot WRs. Allen has 54% of the slot snaps on the szn while Odunze has 35% (this has held strong week to week)
Larky has this as a great matchup for RBs for DET and very bad OVERALL matchup for Swift. Gibbs is a CIWO player this week
My rushing graphs show both teams have a great “yards before contact” matchup! Sneak Peek on Tyron Tracy explosion game!
Lastly, Larky has this as a slightly above matchup for LaPorta and bad matchup for Kmet.
Odunze is a Route Based Hero and Coach, I Was Open. Allen and Odunze are both BOSS players. DET generally allows deep targets, Odunze is the Bears main deep target player.
Allen and Moore lead the team in targets by a good margin when the opponent blitzes
ARSB and JAMO got that “no blitz” life for DET
The Bet:
Odunze and Allen interest me a LOT. Allen is on the Ridley uptick train
JAMO & Gibbs feels like the only real explosion plays for DET.
Gibbs receiving could be interesting (CIWO)
Bears likely wont win but i think some level of Bears passing through Allen and Odunze + DET win + DET rushing + maybe JAMO big play again
My bet: Gibbs 125+ Rush/Recy & Keenan 70+ & Odunze 70+ +2800 on DK
Also like: DET passing + Keenan or Odunze bring back
NYG vs DAL
Not going to repost graphs to save space so if I’m re-using previous graphs they aren’t going to be pasted anywhere down here.
The Story:
Good Lord, this game is bad on paper.
Tyrone Tracy initially stands out as a potential BEEG play for rushing upside. (rushing graph above)
Tolbert is an RBH but with Cooks it might get weird
CD Lamb is an XTD guy
Nabers is THE RBH this week but Devito really sucks. Tommys best passing game ever was for 246 and really his average is MUCH lower. Cowboys are also top 10 at generating quick pressure sooooo glhf to Tommy boy.
The Cowboys have show that they are willing to pass the ball even with Rush. My models have them at roughly 33.5 attempts this week.
The Bet:
Individually: From the data… I like the idea of: Nabers, Tracy rushing, Tolbert
My models have DAL at -1.5 but i personally like DAL -3.5. Models only have one game of Tommy behind the wheel.
Bet i did: Tyrone Tracy 120+ Rushing & Tracy TD & Cowboys -3 at +4400
weird bet: Tracy 120+ & Tracy TD & Tracy UNDER 14.5 carries for inverse correlation with the anticipation he breaks a few big ones. +14000
MIA vs GB
The Story:
Dolphins are good against MOFO and GB runs a good amount of MOFO
Looking at the blitz graph earlier we see that they should not expect a lot of blitzes. Jonnu Smith sees a small uptick in targets when the dolphins are not blitzed. He also has the best PFF grade by a margin.
Looking at coverages Waddle, Smith, Hill, and Achane all share similar targets. Almost any way i break it down the targets are pretty evenly distributed.
Dolphins top 10 coverage team over the last month who run a lot of MOFO themselves, but they are not great at generating QP (19th)
Packers are 11th in PFF cov, are predicted to run a lot of MOFO in my model, and are bad at generating QP (20th)
OBJ is an XTD guy
Josh Jacobs could be in for a good day rushing
It is interesting because if you look at the yards BEFORE contact graph earlier the dolphins dont allow a ton, but the packers are expected to generate a lot of yard AFTER contact this week. Not sure that has any real meaning but its interesting for sure.
its below in the KC writeup but both teams LOVE holding onto the ball… more than likely, alt bets will not hit under these circumstances… not going to slam anything here.
The Bet:
Jonnu Smith alts maybe even TD
Josh Jacobs rushing alts
Weather is a real factor bet: GB -5.5 & Jacobs 110+ & Smith 7+ Receptions Fanatics boosted to +4300
Weather is not a real factor bet: MIA ML & Jacobs 80+ rush & Smith 70+ +2800 on DK
Black Friday Special - LV vs KC
The Story:
tbh there is not much standing out in this game.
Dude, The Chiefs hold onto the ball like a lot. This is a bad recipe for alts but we like alts and we dont care who knows.
Kareem Hunt is in NEED of some TDs but Pacheco is on his way back
Raiders are 12th worst in PFF cov, but 2nd in QP rate with a relatively even split of MOFO and MOFC.
Chiefs are 14th best in PFF cov and 10th in QP rate. They run the 7th most MOFO in the NFL the 3rd most “MOFO/MOFO” meaning they show mofo then play mofo
In MOFO situations Bowers BY FAR leads the team in targets. in MOFO/MOFO, he is even more of a leader in targets.
The Bet:
Bowers Alts
KC will likely win through the air as they do.
My spread is about -7 though the model does not know about Minshew being injured… im not sure it would affect the model much though.
My Bet: Mahomes 250+, LV +14.5, Bowers 110+, Bowers 10+ receptions +3000 on fanatics
Bet for the entire day:
Degen Boosted Bet:
Gibbs Rush and Rec 125+ & Keenan 70+ & Tracy Rushing 100+ & CD TD & Jacobs 100+ & Smith OVER 4.5 Receptions +73283 on DK
FOR NEW PEOPLE - BLACK FRIDAY SPECIAL… YOU CAN SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE TODAY
There ya go! I hope that you enjoy my content and find it useful. If you do, this is a reminder to like <3 it SERIOUSLY helps me so much. I put in a lot of early and extra research to get this post to you today. If you are thankful for this post, let me know <3
Anyways, Happy Thanksgiving! I hope you enjoy today and enjoy time with your families. Maybe we will hit a bet or two along the way.
Go Dawgs… and to Hell with Georgia Tech
Thanks for putting this out. Great read!
Thanks for putting this out. Happy Thanksgiving.
I love Nabers 1st quarter overs too in that game, especially with Lock now starting. He’s been pretty vocal all week and I like the chances of Lock just feeding him early.