Week 10 Thoughts and Notes

Sorry for the week off but we back!

Joseph Bryan

Nov 11, 2023

Hey Everyone,

Sorry I was gone last week but we back! Week 8 we hit big on our favorite play! lets try again this week.

Favorite Plays

Tampa Bay Onslaught:
- Thesis: TB should have more plays than normal and a decent amount of plays in general. They have big advantages in both passing and rushing.
- Core:
  - Mayfield 300+ & White 60+ & Evans 100+
- Bonus:
  - Add Godwin TD/White TD with hopes of some scoring and big payouts
  - Over 38.5 also seems interesting if you think Levis is good (maybe alt overs)
Chris Olave
- Gonna be a popular breakout pick this week for good reason
- BOSS, Route Hero, probably in Josh’s buy low but isnt posted yet
- Saints should see lots of plays against a beatable defense
- Olave MAX yards (125+ or so) and TD or regression to the mean isnt real
DK Metcalf (watch weather)
- BOSS, Route Hero, likely buy low, and TD model
- SEA could and should have their way through the air with a decent expected PROE
- WAS has been awful at defending…. most everything
- (bonus stupid point) DK DEFINITELY wants to outshine his good friend AJB who just had a great game against WAS 2 weeks ago

Plays I like (In Order)

The Sun God (Amon Ra St. Brown):

great aDoT matchup. healthy off a bye. Alt receptions >>>

Trey McBride:

BOSS, Route Hero, Murray back bb

Calvin Ridley:

BOSS, great single cov matchup for targets coming off a bye.

CD Lamb:

Giants

Aaron Jones:

Steelers funnel run to a decent extent. Jones looks much better. Expect a nice dose

Jamarr Chase:

BOSS, Route Hero, probably a buy low, hurt tho so scary. normally would be a fav play but injury scary

Jalin Hyatt:

hear me out. breakout game against one of the better defenses in the NFL
i don’t have a lot to support this. just feels and a TD model
80+ & TD (i would not bet more than $5 on this lol)

SGPs/DFS Stack Opportunities

TB Onslaught in Fav plays
Saints pass like crazy:
- Core: Carr 325+ Olave 100+
- Saints -5.5… are we sure Dobbs is as good as he showed last week? im not
- Olave TD not bad but Johnson TD for the freaks
SEA | WAS shootout (watch weather)
- overs everywhere. I lean SEA side but don’t be scared to stack with Howell passing
- Core: DK TD & Lockett 70+ & Geno 300+
- DK 100+ for the model believers
Kyler is back and decided to practice football instead of COD this week:
- Core: Kyler 300+ & Hollywood 80+ & McBride 80+
- McBride TD … Kyler TD for hopeful
- Jonnu bring back for the spite
Jax airs it out against SF. Expect a ton of passing for JAX, lots of avenues for this to happen
- Core: Tlaw 300+ & Ridley 7+ receptions
- Kirk TD for the crazy . ETN TD for the reasonable.
- SF should probably pass it more than they have been but who knows. Expect scoring. Aiyuk bring back
IND adjusts and passes it more while NE tries to shutdown JT (assuming Downs healthy)
- Minshew 300+ & Pittman 80+ & Downs 80+
- Demario bring back on receptions (7+ for the sickos)
LAC and DET both have solid run defenses. could lead to teams passing more
- alt receptions for both Keenan and ARSB
- passing yards scares me for both QBs for different reasons relative to odds.
HOU air raid?
- HOU gotta be learning to let Stroud cook? I will say, the underlying stuff does not look great to me. that’s why this is lower on the list. Bengals rush the passer pretty well and Stroud struggles.
- Most likely scenario: HOU tries to run it a LOT and slowly loses the game. Pierce out means dusty Singletary is all they got. they cannot run like last week, but CIN run defense is rough so maybe they try.
- Unlikely Core: Stroud 300+ & Noah Brown 6+ receptions
  - interested in Noah Brown but risky… low aDoT against a team thatll get pressure
  - not interested in Texans ML… if this happens it will be out of straight need by losing
  - would be interested in stacking with Burrow/Chase like Bengals gained a 14 pt lead by passing.