Week 11 Thoughts and Notes

New Models... New Life

Favorite Plays

• Jags v Titans

  • Only two teams that play each other where they BOTH fall into elite passing tails categories. Jags fall into good rushing territory too but im not gonna mess with that TOO much.

  • Core: Tlaw 275+ & Levis 275+ & Ridley 100+ & UNDER 44.5

    • Add Ridley 100+ if you are feeling brave. BOSS, Route Hero, and Josh’s Buy Low AND he’s the Single Coverage Monster of the team.

      • If Ridley doesnt explode idk who can this week

    • Not against running an SGP or two with Jags onslaught (ETN Rushing + Tlaw Passing, no/minimal titans)

    • Titans side only play: Levis 300+ & DHop 110+ & Henry TD (Chig TD instead if you insane)

• Dallas Onslaught

  • Thesis: Cowboys CRUSH Panthers on both the ground and the air. DAL falls into the best passing tail prediction classification. DAL also has a good rushing prediction.

  • Core: Dak 300+ & DAL -5.5

    • Here is where stuff gets interesting. Listening to PFF Forecast Pod and they talk about how good CAR is at covering slot receivers, but not much else. how about Gallup 60+

    • Sickos may want to do a Tolbert TD

    • Smart(er) bet: Dak 300+ & DAL -5.5 & CD 100+ & Pollard 70+

      • with Pollard TD for slightly more aggression

      • Ferguson TD (not TOGETHER) for even a little more aggression

    • Dumb bet: Dak 325+ & Gallup 60+ & DAL -9.5

      • with Tolbert TD if you wanna get CRAZY

• Bills v Jets (Weather pending)

  • NOT one person will like this bet but … okay… close your eyes

  • …. keep them closed…

  • Core: Allen 325+ & Diggs 110+ & Davis 80+

  • sorry. I hate it too, but the odds are pretty dang good and models like it. great predicted PROE. great Predicted PVA (play volume adjustment). Jets pass funnel. Top tier team in the new passing tails model. Top 10 across all the important benchmarks.

  • Bonus stupid point: you KNOW Allen wants to shut everyone up and get a little revenge. Personally, I am a big believer in Joe Brady’s OC ability.

Plays I Like (In Order)

• CD Lamb again (reasons below)

• DK Metcalf

  • NEEDS a TD, Route Hero, and Josh’s buy low model in a game that has sparks of going nuclear imo.

• Young/Thielen

  • CAR will be pushed (probably pushed into losing by 20). They generally aren’t scared to make Young pass it 40 times. DAL coverage actually not amazing but glhf against their pass rush. Thielen aDoT mismatch

• ARSB — Sun God

  • TD Model + BOSS + Route Hero + aDoT mismatch

• Javonte Williams

  • BOSS, good OEP over the last 4 games, expected to run the ball a lot

• Gabe Davis

  • Route Hero, Jets pass funnel

• Tank Dell

  • Texans PROE been trending upwards, ARI creates a lot of non single coverage opportunities for opposing offenses (zone) and Dell has been HOU’s go to in those situations.

**NEW** Tail Bets Model

check out my full write up here

First this is all teams with at least two ranks in the top 10 for the week (or all 3) sorted by Med Rank.

Next is ALL teams sorted by Probability of Tail Event.

Key Takeaways:

• Dallas, San Fran, and the Bills all look like the ELITE passing teams for tail events this week.

• Titans look very interesting for some Levis → DHop explosion props.

• Don’t trust any cardinals numbers with Kyler being back.

• Jags/Titans could be a great tail tail bet for an explosion game. especially if props are deflated at all after this past week.

• SEA and HOU also fall into some pretty solid territory. The model doesn’t even know about Murray really so that could be a helpful push in some gamescripts.

• LOVE MIA offense as always but pricing is kinda awful so I’m staying away

SGPs and DFS Stacks

• Cowboys v Panthers

  • DAL with good upside and good probability… we talked about them earlier. CAR with high relative upside but low floor. CAR should obviously get pushed by DAL into attempting a tail event. Idk if they CAN with DAL def tho.

  • longshot but: Young 275+ & Thielen 100+

• 49ers v Buccaneers

  • This is 100% an onslaught spot for SF. SF top 7 in predicted plays, top 10 in both predicted pass yards and rush yards.

  • Core: Purdy 275+ & Aiyuk 80+ & CMC 80+ Rush

    • Push any players you think have a specific advantage.

    • CMC TD just cause i guess

    • Evans bring back (BOSS + Single Cov Monster)

• Seahawks v Rams

  • Models like SEA’s potential… PotenTAIL?

  • I am biased towards Rams unleashing a passing attack one of these days, but dont have much to support it outside both Kupp and Puka being BOSSes

  • Core: Geno 275+ & DK 70+ & DK TD

    • DK Route Hero + Josh’s buy low

  • Rams always have a chance to go off imo. Esp with Kupp and Puka in both Josh’s buy low and the BOSS models and Stafford back. I will have a small amount on a Rams nuclear passing game.

• Texans v Cardinals

  • I haven’t watched or read anything from Judah yet but i bet he’s got his boy Stroud at max props.

  • Core: Stroud 300+ & Tank Dell 80+ & Schultz 60+

    • Push where necessary but i think Dell and Schultz take most of the opportunity based on cards running little single coverage chances. Woods will probably have 150 or something stupid.

    • Singletary TD wouldn’t be terrible imo

    • Woods TD for the model

• Giants v Commanders? (Calm down, im putting like $5 on it)

  • Model says both teams have a good tail opportunity

  • Model doesn’t know Tommy DeVito

  • screw it: DeVito 250+ & Slayton 80+ & Howell 275+

  • $5 → $400

    • *Physically shrugging

• Vikings v Broncos

  • Dobbs proved me WRONG last week… dude is legit. high PROE prediction + best quadrant in new model graph, why not?

  • Assuming JJ is back → Dobbs 275+ & JJ 100+ & Vikings ML

TD Model and Parlay

Tolbert + Watson + Mooney => $5 →$685 lotto… why not?

BOSS Models

Route Heroes

and there you have it!

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