Week 12 Thoughts and Notes

we at it again... new models hype?

Nov 25, 2023

The new model didn’t do half bad last week! I was honestly kind of impressed. Thanksgiving went pretty well → Dak with an elite passing performance! Median model loved Lions passing which did well. Overall not terrible for modeling.

Favorite Plays

last week I did SGPs here and I’m not 100% sure i liked that. back to 1 SGP + players

Houston SGP… Stroud is a beast and decimates Jags like the Titans SHOULD HAVE. I explain in more detail in the SGP section.
- Stroud 300+ & Dell 80+ & Schultz 60+
- Collins TD (model)
- Kirk over 5.5 (or alt if you crazy) receptions bring back
Michael Pittman
- Very good probability of tail event for Colts passing. BOSS, C3 beast against a team that runs a high % of C3. Has been earning targets like a MADMAN lately.

Stefon Diggs
- Bills PROE kings, Eagles give up a lot of receiving to WRs, Diggs Route Hero and SCT Monster. Bills likely air it out against a strong Eagles offense. Diggs will be main benefactor.

Plays I like (in order)

Courtland Sutton
- Solid target share normally → SCT MONSTAR → Browns are a constant SCT team
- Sutton Alt + & TD if you are feeling frisky
Christian Kirk
- Route Hero, very good in non SCT scenarios which HOU allows a lot. I like alt receptions here
Hollywood Brown
- BOSS + SCT Monstar + Route Hero.
- Rams mix up defense a lot but generally allow SCTs. Hollywood sees a massive Target share spike in SCT situations.
Gabriel Davis
- lots of the same reasons to like Diggs. just less confident in him.
Derrick Henry
- I think there is a nonzero chance we get a King Henry game. BOSS + solid predicted run plays against bad rush defense.
- 150+ & 2TDs
Jerome Ford
- good rushing prediction for Browns. less plays tho… rushing prop of 50 seems low
DJ Chark
- SCT beast against a team that could allow SCTs a lot AND good probability of passing tail. wouldn’t go crazy tho.

New Passing Tails Model

Model does not know about Burrow being gone… somewhat ignore all Bengals projections

Short List of teams I’m VERY interested in tail opportunities for (except Bengals… i am only SLIGHTLY interested). Quantile >300, prob > .3

SGPs

Colts Passing! we just gonna keep attacking TBs pass defense. Purely a Model Play
- TB runs a LOT of Cover 3 and Minshew is not a beast against C3. I would assume TB doesn’t change up the gameplan too much. Slightly above average predicted pass plays (but below avg predicted PROE)
- Pittman (42%) and Downs (23%) DOMINATE the C3 target share this year. Pittman also BOSS.
- Colts also run a lot of C3. Godwin is the C3 target share leader. Baker is good against C3. If you trust in the reports of Godwin playing normal play time. Godwin 70+
- Core: Minshew 300+ & Pittman 100+
  - Downs 60+ for more aggression
  - I want to add IND -2.5 but a little scared
  - Evans TD for the bold if you do IND -2.5 and Evans TD that’s the real money
  - Longshot SGP: Minshew 300+ & Pittman 100+ & Evans TD & Godwin 70+
    - IND -2.5 if you crazy like that
MAY THE WELL NEVER RUN DRY. HOU passing… again? I guess. Model Play
- JAX runs a decent amount of C3. Stroud slays C3. Dell stands OUT against C3. and in general JAX does not allow SCT situations (single coverage targets) which means more spread out targets NORMALLY. More than anything less SCTs typically means less dominance from Collins.
- Stroud 300+ & Dell 80+ & Schultz 60+
- Collins TD for the big bucks (model play)
- For a bring back. Kirk O 5.5 seems like a good choice
I was eyeing it but Judah definitely pushed me over the edge to say “throw some money on it”… Bengals passing
- Browning 28+ completions & Chase 125+? i guess… idk im not in love with the prices on fanduel and Pointsbet only has alt completions up right now lol. I doubt Browning is gonna be completing too many high adots? so dink and dunk. $5?
Stupid, bad, don’t do this, but ya know… I’m getting Devito vibes
- Core: Ridder 300+ & Pitts 100+
- yeah i think that’s it? Rasheed Shaheed bring back because king Judah said so
- $5 stupid bet. I’m not betting anymore