Week 13 Thoughts and Notes

Dude... how is it week 13? ** Isaiah Bond didn't catch it **

Honestly. How is it week 13? feels like the season is basically over, but its not. I have had fun doing this format this year. Let’s me keep one place of concurrent thoughts throughout the week and all that jazz. I hope y’all have enjoyed this new format!

Also, with the SEC championship stress, i didn’t have a lot of time to get to this this week. Refs won that game and everyone knows it. Okay now NFL analysis. A little less than normal but hopefully you enjoy!

reminder, when i put bets… I’m HYPER aggressive and do not bet that much $$$ I typically aim for bets/SGPs that are at least +3000.

Favorite Plays

• Amon Ra (The Sun God):

  • Route Hero! potentially fantastic matchup in the slot.

  • Lions top model play for passing tails … so very nice upside.

  • usually a good floor for those that care about floor

• Diontae Johnson:

  • Quadfecta! BOSS, Route Hero, NEEDS TD, SCT Monster

  • new OC!

  • hopefully his team doesn’t hate him!

Plays I Like (In Order)

• Chris Olave

  • SCT monster in a game they are likely losing. Very similar reason that I liked DK this week. Bonus: might be the only WR on the team.

  • I do worry that Carr could turn into a Pumpkin at any moment tho. would be a fav play otherwise

• Hollywood Brown

  • BOSS, good explosive matchup, MW3 hype has died down a little

• Brandon Aiyuk

  • SCT Monster, Route Hero, bad eagles pass D, good median projection passing

• Eagles Passing

  • see SGP notes, but dang i feel good about this play. not really model backed tho. just vibes. watch for rain tho

• Chigoziem Okonkwo!

  • I like to think i was on Chig before other people… so i am biased

  • great NON SCT matchup (he had one last week too and had his best game of the year. BOSS. decent probability of tail event.

SGPs/DFS Stacks

• Lions Passing!

  • Saints slot CB is baaaaad and they love running man. Big ARSB day?

  • generally, against defenses the saints like running its the ARSB and LaPorta show

  • against man, its tempting to add Raymond since he’s a beast at generating separation. just low snaps.

  • bring back Olave for sure? not even sure who’s WR2 with their injuries lol

  • Goff 300+ & ARSB 100+ & LaPorta TD & LaPorta 50+ & Olave 100+

    • ARSB Route Hero and GREAT matchup

    • LaPorta BOSS, Route Hero, potential great matchup when middle of field.

    • Olave only WR on the team maybe, SCT monster,

      • bonus: always a chance Winston comes in and airs it out.

• Commanders Passing…. ehhhh gonna go against the model here

  • Dolphins run a weird defense. (lots of Cover 6, Cover 3, and Cover 3 seam). Howell is AWFUL against those lol

    • maybe lets attack this from a dolphins angle

      

    • Dolphins DST TD, Achane 110+ & TD, Mostert 50+ & TD

      • add Howell less than 261 for story

    • thesis: dolphins get insane play volume with the commanders struggling to pass even tho they want to.

• Dolphins Passing is OF COURSE an amazing play but….. the Fanduel odds are just awful. hard to bet Tua 350+ Tyreek 100+ and Waddle 100+ when it only gets you +1000

  • now…. if you ADD Achane to a big Hill/Waddle…. you get some crazy prices

  • Hill 125+ & Waddle 100+ & Achane 110+ & Achane TD

    • $5 → $1260 … Broncos 2.0

• Hear me out. Steelers passing. new OC is legit maybe? idk but Picketts line is 195 against the Cardinals

  • max it out to 275? thats not that hard?

  • Diontae SCT, BOSS, Route Hero, AND NEEDS TD

    • that’s basically the regression quadfecta

  • Pickett 275+ & Diontae 90+ & TD & Pickens 50+

    • $5? why not→ $290

    • small issue is the team may hate Diontae but that’s not up to us to figure out.

    • add McBride bring back receptions (8+ imo) for big bucks

• Vibes play entirely: Eagles passing vs SF

  • thesis: SF is going to PUSH the Eagles harder than they have been pushed

    • yes i know the model says 26 but ya know sometimes the math is wrong lol

  • Hurts is easily capable of a 300+ yard game (239 prop). Eagles may even pass funnel against a strong SF front.

  • Hurts 300+ & AJB 90+ & Smith 90+ & Hurts TD

    • add Eagles ML for big multiplier.

• Titans passing?

  • high probability of tail event.

  • Colts run a high non SCT defense (benefits WR2s, RBs and TEs usually)

  • thesis: ball get spread around.. i would alt an RB if i could but no alts and idk who has the best chance to break a screen.

  • Levis 275+ & Burks 50+ & Chig 50+ & Dhop 50+

  • stupid bet.. $5 → $372

New Models (Passing Tails)

TD Model and Parlay

Stupid Parlay (we hit last week!): Engram + Njoku (Flacco FTW!) + Downs =>

BOSS Models

Route Heroes

Single Coverage Monsters

Thank you! as always, if you made this far and enjoy my content, consider supporting my Patreon! its $1 a month and you get a nice little Excel file each week with some data and a few model projections. Still appreciate the support tho