Week 14 Thoughts and Notes

We been killing it "thematically" but getting killed by 1 yard losses

if you saw on Twitter, been getting unlucky lol but we ride again. Dare I say this….

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Favorite Plays

• AJ Brown/CD Lamb

  • Both sides have big incentives to pass and both sides arent amazing at stopping Alphas. both sides have good passing upside. Both show up in BOSS, Route Heroes, and Need TD to varying degrees.

• Mike Evans

  • BOSS, SCT Monster, and great aDoT matchup. should see a good amount of deep targets as always. likely in one-on-one situations.

• Deebo Samuel!

  • 49ers are interesting. in SCT defense situations → Aiyuk. in non SCT (more sticky) Samuel. Seahawks allow a lot of NON SCT.

  • 49ers top tier pass projection. Samuel 100+ maybe even some rushing props

Plays I Like (In Order)

• TJ Hockenson

  • Vikings good passing pred + LV a strong NON SCT team (which funnels TEs usually). BOSS.

• Michael Pittman

  • SCT Monster, good passing upside, route hero

• Tyler Boyd

  • Non SCT Monster, BOSS, Bengals good passing projection

• Joe Mixon

  • BOSS, Colts run D not good… idk im bad at doing the RB thing

• Alec Pierce (Pittman is the “good” play, Pierce is the BEEG money play)

  • biggest benefit from SCT on team. PLUS team has said they wanna get him the ball more. Needs TD as well.

SGPS and DFS Stacks

• Bengals passing maybe underestimated? in one of my best models: Bengals come out as #3 in predicted PROE this week and that’s WITH the new Browning data.

  • Model: 257, FD: 227… upside: 317 good probability.

  • if weather gets bad stay away probably.

  • Colts are top team in NON SCT situations (this is sticky)

    • generally non SCT teams don’t allow targets to concentrate AS heavily as SCT teams

  • Thoughts of a madman parlay (its 2:29am as i write this)

    • Browning 275+

    • Chase 70+

    • Boyd 60+ (feel free to push this more. great aDoT metchup)

    • Alec Pierce 70+ (bring back) (and TD if you crazy like that)

• Oh look at that…. Colts Passing looks good too

  • alt over on this game could look nice? this game has the potential to go nuclear. I’m sure the weather will ruin it

• Bills beat the Chiefs… handedly

  • this is not a tails play as much as it is a feel + some individual models play

  • Bills predicted 38 pass att against a generally poorly graded coverage unit.

  • schematically the Chiefs are unique and very good on defense. this concerns me but Josh is good enough to overcome this when he’s at his best.

  • Madman: Bills -5.5, Josh 300+, Josh 50+ rushing, Gabe 110+, Allen TD

    • $25 → $5,000

    • lesser versions of this will definitely be in play but this is the superman bet

    • FWIW: KC generally allows lower aDoT passes. other bets will include Kincaid and Diggs but this is the “everything goes perfectly for Bills bet” (who nothing has gone perfectly for all season. They are GOOD (likely better than KC all around)

• 49ers dismantle the Seahawks as expected

  • Purdy 275+, Samuel 100+, Aiyuk UNDER 67.5, CMC OVER 4.5 rec

  • I’m okay with swapping this out for a Kittle game too or CMC game but Debo is preferred to me.

  • i don’t mind onslaught approach here either. with CMC rushing 100+ and lowering passing a little. would go -13.5 in onslaught.

  • add SF -13.5 to feel something. ML also does well for bet i think +2400 → +2920 on just ML addition to bet above

• Eagles passing against heaving SCT team (AJB beast modes in SCT). This is a bad bet but its a very similar play to last week

  • basically: Eagles NEED to win this game. They, imo, will choose to rely on their “MVP” caliber QB.

  • Hurts 300+, AJB 125+, Hurts TD, Eagles ML → +4000 on Poinsbet (with daily boost)

Passing Tails

TD Model and Parlay

BOSS Models

Route Heroes

RIPP tank dell’s amazing route usage

Sam LaPorta with consistent fantastic route usage ALL year. love that this was a leading indicator for him (and even Ferg to an extent) being successful. in Dynasty, i would be snatching up Muth if i didnt have LaPorta everywhere already.

Single Coverage Monsters

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