Week 2 Thoughts and Notes!
We kinda back! Zay Flowers 0.o Wandale Robinson 0.o What could go wrong?
Hey Everyone!
We have some data! and some fun, longshot parlays to go through. As always, I use data to inform my decisions and opinions of people that I trust on the internet. People like:
, Scott, Ben, or Josh!In general, I like a good story + data to back up my story. I am also SUPER aggressive with my parlays… Like to a stupid extent, but dang is it fun to hit big. I am a statistics person by trade and degree… *not* a gambler… nor a writer lol.
Anyway here are some bets. My models and tables will be below in case you want to use them to create your own bets/parlays!
SGPs
Colts vs Packers
Okay, so, I am a Steichen stan. I think he is a top 5 offensive mind in the league (not sure if that is a hot take?) and knows the macro game of football (4th down decision making, play action rates, motion, etc) better than 95% of coaches.
The Story: Steichen + AR5 + Malik Willis = BLOWOUT in GB
The Bet (+9000 on DK):
Willis UNDER .5 passing TDs
Pittman OVER 4.5 receptions (i am sad because i bet this at 5.5 earlier in the week and now its 4.5)
Colts -16
AR5 250+
Pittman TD
The Reasoning: Willis is bad at playing quarterback. Pittman is a BOSS (he shows up as needing to positively regress in my BOSS models. Similar to Josh Hermsmeyer’s Buy Low model). I do worry a little about AR5 over 250 as he has never done it in his NFL career, but I do think he will get a LOT of opportunities to pass the ball in this game. Biggest worry would be the defense scores a few TDs.
Giants vs Commanders
The inspiration from this initially came from
on his and Ben’s podcast. Basically, the public is selling the Giants and Daniel Jones isn’t ALL bad right? RIGHT? I think there is a good chance we see a bounce back game from the Giants now that they get to play a generally bad commanders defense.The Story: Daniel Jones redeems himself a little against an awful defense. Giants get some pass rush on a rookie QB who is extra bad against pressure.
The Bet (+3800 on DK):
NYG -5.5
Wandale 60+
Daniel Jones 275+
The Bet #2 (+8000 on DK):
NYG Win
Daniel Jones 275+
Wandale TD
Nabers 100+
The Reasoning: Commanders are very bad in pass defense (bottom 5 in YACOE, Top 3 blitz rate with 11th worst pressure rate, #1 worst EPA/Pass given up). Wandale is a BOSS with a good XTD.
Just a parlay I like
+4238 on DK
Amari Cooper 80+ (+205)
Colts -5.5 (+135)
Olave 80+ (+210) (the leg i worry most about)
Flowers OVER 4.5 (-105)
CRAZY TD PARLAY
PURELY based on the XTD model from _Tanho that i altered/aggregated for finding future TD scorers
Brandon Aiyuk
Alvin Kamara
Rachaad White
Sam LaPorta
Diontae Johnson
Hayden Hurst
I got +36572 on it with DK. In general, my fav bet here is Kamara… +135 for the #1 XTD player in the NFL? seems like good value
PLAYERS I LIKE THIS WEEK
just some players i like because of the data this week. some will repeat from the SGPS
Zay Flowers
Wandale Robinson
Michael Pittman
Chris Olave
Amari Cooper
Rachaad White
Alvin Kamara
Najee Harris (I am cautiously optimistic… tho i have 0 bets on him)
Zach Moss (I am cautiously optimistic… tho i have 0 bets on him)
Bowers (I am cautiously optimistic… tho i have 0 bets on him)
Not a player, but dang i feel like the Steelers should destroy the Broncos? i dont get how the line is 2.5 tbh. I didn’t make any parlays for it yet tho.
Models and such
Hoping to get more going as we get deeper into the season! but this is it for now.
BOSSES
If you enjoy these kinds of breakdowns and stupid bets! let me know! Please consider subscribing! Remember, i am not a gambler… just a guy that likes data and setting money on fire.