Week 4 Betting
I am NOT a professional gambler or anything. Just a dude having fun shooting for the moon.
I figured it wouldn’t hurt to share some of my more fun bets. I am a hyper aggressive gambler and I don’t mind losing money. It’s basically my version of playing GPPs. I win like two big bets a year and it fuels me. I am not posting these in hopes anyone copies me. This is just for fun and I will lose 99% of the time. I did pretty well in week 2 but took a bath in week 3.
Weird TD Parlay
I like doing at least one “weird TD parlay” a week for players that have better usage (overall or redzone) than maybe the market realizes. I actually hit big in week 2 on one of these.
This week we are attacking some long odds for sure. Smith has some GREAT usage and Arthur Smith is weird. Berrios has shockingly elite route usage but runs few routes. Downs has some great redzone usage. All 3 are plays i like individually but lets shoot for some $$$.
Moonshot (+150000 -through +250000)
I also like to aim at the moon and see what happens. This bet could be dead early which is one reason i hate it. The hardest leg happens before the others, but at least ill know if we have a shot heading into the 1pm games.
This is the “LONDON KING” bet in hope that Arthur Smith lets Pitts takeover. Higgins has all the signs of a big game. Diggs in a great position too. Hollywood is probably my favorite 4pm bet, but the 49ers do scare me.
NEED A TD Parlay
I have a fairly simple “NEEDS TD” model that models a players probability of getting a TD for a given play. we look at that vs how many TDs they have. its that simple. The players below are 5 of our top players in the “NEEDS TD” model.
In general these are pretty intuitive and I like the parlay. All players definitely SHOULD score a TD either this week or next. Let’s hope its this week.
So you wanna be a millionaire?
blurry, I am sorry, but there are a lot of legs. If you thought we were aiming at the moon earlier, we are aiming at Andromeda here. This is a stupid “set my money on fire” bet, but i think its smarter than a cheap lottery ticket? right? we know ball. My goal is to basically pick a few games and try to predict how they will play out perfectly.
The thought process here is:
Bengals Titans turns into a shootout that leans on Bengals/Burrow destroying the Titans secondary
We get some weird TDs in the Dolphins/ Bills game. This can happen in a few different ways, but a shootout would be the best
Puka and Downs both ball out and get their first TDs
It really doesn’t seem crazy on any given leg but we all know it won’t happen.
These were just some of my more fun, less serious bets! if you enjoy my content, definitely subscribe and share if possible :)
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