Week 4 Thoughts and Notes
Oh Hey. This is something new I'm trying. Not sure it will be an every week thing, but i felt like it was good to get to a place I could easily write out all of my thoughts for the upcoming week.
I love a good thread but honestly making them is a lot of work and that's time i could be focusing on football/models! I mostly stick to sports gambling and SGPs nowadays. I really don't like having to keep up with ownership and DFS sharps/sims and all that. I am a big fan or simply finding players that are going to play well and planting my flag. DFS is really fun tho and I think my analysis can be useful, but definitively don't lean on me for any game theory or ownership.
With that said here are a few things that i may do in my notes:
BOSS means a player is in my BOSS models (you can get full Excel access to them and some nice stats on my patreon)
Route Hero means a player that is popping in my route based expected fantasy points model. I will share more details on this at some point, but for now definitely take it with a grain of salt.
Buy Low is Josh's Buy Low model. Go subscribe to his substack! he's the GOAT of football analytics in my eyes
NEEDS TD, you will see a lot. This is just if a player is popping in my expected TD model.
I try to collect a lot of valuable information from a lot of different sources. I will do my best to always give credit to where credit is due. Please go sub to those people! There is a reason i think that information is useful.
Favorite Plays:
- Tee Higgins: Josh's Buy Low + BOSS + Titans force passing + Titans do single coverage a lot and Burrow targets Tee in those situations.
- AJB: dude, the man needs to score a TD... like NEEDS. Needs TD Model, Josh's Buy Low, Route Hero. He dropped like 3 or 4 TDs last week
- Josh Jacobs: Great usage + chargers bad run D (PFF) + BOSS + NEEDS TD. IFF Jimmy G is playing, I am happy to lean on Jacobs
Plays I like (in order):
Diggs: Route Hero + Single Coverage monster. They NEED a big game from either Diggs or Cooks to deal with MIA and they know that. Diggs is the better, more reliable player.
Olave: Yolo Winston? Needs TD + Route Hero. I worry about this game being low scoring. Would be a fav play otherwise.
Hollywood: Single Cov, SF forces passes at the highest rate in the league, Route Hero, Cards are playing hard, if they want to keep it close they need a big game from Brown. Would be a fav play but SF is very good and that scares me.
Puka! I will die on the Puka hill. 70+ & TD
Rhamondre: Cowboys allow a lot of runs, BOSS, Pats probably better than market thinks? O 56.5 + TD
Jakobi Meyers (or Dadams): gets the single targets, BOSS, IFF Jimmy G is healthy play something
Pitts: LONDON KING + Boss + Buy low + Needs a TD BUT Arthur Smith :(
Robert Woods: Texans believe in Stroud... I see a scenario where Stroud goes against the grain and plays well. Buy Low, Route Hero.
Javonte: BOSS, allows runs a lot, Broncos probs mad
Josh Downs: some freaky good redzone usage with an S tier college profile. breakout will happen one of these days.
PURE TD Plays I like:
AJB dammit, Dhop, AMat, Pollard, Jacobs, Rhamondre, Stefon, Chase, Puka
Freaky TDs i like:
Berrios, Knox, Josh Downs, Jake Ferg, Jonnu Smith, Robert Woods
Game Environments I am interested in:
- Dolphins vs Bills (Duh): obvious amazing game environment is obvious, BUT i am a smidge worried about how much the dolphins ask for the run. Feel like Cook could be a sneaky play. Still going to hope for an absolute shootout. We don’t get games like this every week.
- Bengals vs Titans: The total line is bad but both teams invite the pass. Bengals could finally explode. Titans offense is.... um... well not amazing but we can hope Dhop carries them? I’m not saying i would dump the bank, but im *interested* in the potential for this to become a shootout.
- Rams vs Colts: great coaches on both sides + not the best defenses. I think we could see a little more offense in this game than we would have thought preseason.
- If Jimmy G plays - Raiders vs Chargers: Not sure how the Chargers manage to end up in interesting games all the time, but you know. Really like the idea of Josh Jacobs breakout game for 2023 and could play a few sides to the LAC side.
GENERAL NOTES
Single Coverage Preferable Matchups (players who are good against single coverage that are facing teams that have allowed a lot of single coverage):
- Mike Evans..... somewhat Chris Godwin
- Amari Cooper..... somewhat Elijah Moore
- Hollywood Brown
- Dadams~=~Meyers
- maybe Chase/Higgins? (Higgins historically better vs single)
- Hyatt (interesting), but Slayton and Waller have WAY more targets in single cov
- Stefon Diggs by a wide margin
Need TDs (TD Model (less than -.75 XTD))
- RBs: Alexander Mat, Pollard, Pacheco, Josh Jacobs, James Cooks, AJ Dillon, Charbs, Gibbs
- WRs: AJB, Olave, Godwin, Michael Thomas, Zay Flowers, Cooks, Lamb, Chase, Jefferson, Justin Watson, Harty, Downs, Ridley
- TEs: Cole Turner, Ferg, Ertz, Herndershot, Pitts, Jonnu, Schultz, Knox
BOSSES (players that need to regress based on their opportunity):
RBs: Josh Jacobs, Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson, Joe Mixon, Alexander Mattison, Kenneth Gainwell, Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, Zack Moss
WRs: Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Puka Nacua, Jakobi Meyers, Garrett Wilson, Zay Flowers, Calvin Ridley, Kendrick Bourne, Treylon Burks, Marvin Jones, Jonathan Mingo, Parris Campbell
TEs: Kyle Pitts, Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, Jake Ferguson, Irv Smith, Jonnu Smith, Mark Andrews, Luke Musgrave, Dallas Goedert, Cole Turner
Route Heroes (Players that run a lot of valuable routes and need to positively regress)
WRs: Chris Olave, Diggs, Tutu Atwell, Chase, Nacua, Deebo, Robert Woods, AJB, Berrios, Metcalf, Hollywood, DHOP, Alec Pierce
Buy Low:
Go look at Josh’s Substack
Worst Coverage Teams (PFF):
1. Broncos 2. Rams 3. Seahawks 4. Giants 5. Bears 6. Chargers 7. Colts 8. Bucs
Worst Run Defense (PFF):
1. Texans 2. Broncos 3. Bucs 4. Chargers 5. Giants 6. Vikings 7. Cardinals 8. Raiders
From Hayden Winks on Twitter This is a super nice chart to understand how offenses attack defenses (Graph i like)