Week 5 Betting

Just some of my dumb bets and SGPs using info from models and data

Two weeks in a row? Dang. Week 4 wasn’t our week </3 we were close to a few big hits, but alas. That’s how things go sometimes.

Here are some of my bets for this week:

Money, Meet Mouth

I have seen people on Twitter post this lately lol, but for real:

3 of my favorite plays this week. I will say, the more research I have done, the more I love the idea of a DHOP beeg game. Pittman is still in an absolutely phenomenal breakout position. My biggest worry of the bet is Hock 80+ tbh, but scared money don’t make money.

Big WR Games

All 4 WRs are in great positions. TDs are weird and I’m sure someone will ruin this, but this is a fun lotto ticket with some data behind it.

Rams v Eagles close shootout

Rams should pass it a lot. Eagles should run it a lot. Both offenses should be successful. I was initially on this game being a nice atmosphere for overs and then Judah convinced me even more on his substack. Lots of room to play here imo. I would definitely consider doing a Tutu huge game but FanDuel/Draftkings don’t have any lines at the moment (cowards!).

Boosted Bet?

If you are a serious gambler, you should probably be taking advantage of all the boosted bets you can. I don’t really have any strong opinions about this game outside of “should be lots of passing” and “Jags probably have an unquantifiable London Advantage”. So let’s bet the high-end percentile for the Jags and TLaw. Bills run a lot of zone and off coverage, Engram (going back to last year) is TLaws fav target in these situations (PFF data).

TD Parlay!

All players are in the top tier for ffopportunity’s Needs TD Model. I like to do one these (low $) every week. All players have a strong TD regression need and are in a position to score these TDs a lot of the time. All we have to do is hit 1 and we are profitable on this bet for multiple seasons.

A Team Parlay?

Texans are much better than the Falcons, I’m not sure the market realizes this. Ravens are MUCH better than the Steelers, could be a bloodbath. The Bengals are awful and Vegas hasn’t adjusted. I placed this a while ago, before I really locked into Rams Eagles shootout. I still like Eagles to likely win, but feel less confident about it. Vikings have played MUCH better than a 1-3 record, but Mahomes is scary and Vikings D sucks.

That’s all! if you like this kind of stuff, i have a Patreon where you get an Excel file of the weekly BOSS Models and some extra data. Also, the Substack is FREE