Week 6 Thoughts and Notes

Remember the sweet... sweet days of Retweets?

Favorite Plays

We have been struggling on our Fav plays. Seems like the plays i like consistently win lol. Let’s change that this week! Plays I Like (in order).

• Cooper Kupp: 125+ & 2TD game? fantastic position based on all of the graphs we saw in the substack earlier this week. LAR should pass it a lot against a fairly week defense. Kupp will destroy. SGP core I like: Stafford 300+ & Kupp 100+ & Puka 80+ maybe add LAR -6.5 and some TDs for big payouts?

• DADams: BOSS, Needs TD, Route Hero, 125+ & 2TDs? perfect bounce back spot. Pats D runs a good mix of C1, C2, C3… Jimmy G is pretty solid against those.

• Nico Collins: Saints play a ton of man, Nico is a manslayer. Saints allow one of the highest aDoTs, Hou has one of the higher aDoTs.

Plays I Like (In Order)

• Devonta Smith: Not a TON of data but BOSS, AJB has been doing too good. Sauce likely covers AJB a lot, Smith beeg game inbound.

• Jaylen Waddle: Been a top RZ weapon when healthy. Dolphins should score a million. i think he would be a BOSS without previous health issues. CAR allows low aDoT, Waddle is the low aDoT option. Should see around 7/8+ targets hopefully?

• TJ Hockenson: Probably should rank him higher? Close to Needs TD, ca easily bump is target share a decent amount and he becomes a BOSS. decent chance for a shootout against a team that cant defend the middle of the field.

• Rhamondre Stevenson: BOSS, blowouts the last two weeks, doubt the signal of him dropping in snaps. high RBOPR which could be a lot higher in close games.

• Robert Woods: Buy Low, BOSS, good WOPR, no Dell. If he was younger, he would be a fav play.

• Michael Pittman shows i was just a week early play? With Minshew revenge game inbound. lookout for a ton of passes and Pittman will garner a nice 25%+ target share after being the standout play last week. 80+ & TD just to make me sad.

• Zay Flowers: Buy Low, BOSS, was a Needs TD last week. Should have had one. I like a Zay/Hop TD parlay.

DFS GPP Concepts/ High Leverage SGPs that seem fun

• Texans get back to passing the ball to Nico in a man defense:

  • CJ 275+ & Nico 100+ & Woods (BOSS) 60+

  • Nico TD

  • Chris Olave bring back 80+ & TD

  • Texans -2.5 if you are feeling adventurous

• Rams destroy the Cardinals through the air

  • Stafford 300+ (maybe more) & Kupp 100+ & Puka 70+ & Tutu if they have it (they didnt last week, hes a BOSS tho)

  • Probably run in the TDs: Kyren (BOSS) 2TDs and we cry

  • Bring back: Hollywood Brown 80+ & TD

  • LAR -6.5 if you feel crazy

• Seahawks offense does very well against CIN Defense

  • Geno 250+ & Walker 70+ & DK 70+

  • DK TD + Walker TD

  • Bring Back: Chase (duh) 100+ but Boyd BOSS (50+ & TD?)

  • Aggressive: SEA -2.5 (maybe even -5.5 if you aren’t sure Burrow is REALLY back)

• Vikings vs Bears could be a shootout (lots of ways to attack)

  • As the great Judah said “lets run it back” on his Fields 275+ & Bears -5.5

  • I dont have much to support it but i feel like Mooney 70+ and TD. he was a BOSS last week, didnt catch a ball (disqualifies for being a boss this week) ,and got targets but they were cursed.

  • I like a Fields 275+ & Mooney 70+ & Moore 70+ core

• 49ers are going to slaughter the Browns

  • probably could attack this through every possible angle

  • Browns likely don’t score? idk its gonna be rough

  • 49ers are -9.5 but i think it should be like -14.5 (im no expert handicapper or anything)

  • Overs on all the 49ers? unders on all the Browns?

• MIA passing goes crazy

  • Tua 300+ & Waddle 9+ RECEPTIONS (this is aggressive on purpose low adot vs a team that allows underneath passes) & Waddle TD & Tyreek 80+ & MIA -9.5… +8264 on Fanduel

• Jimmy GG with DADams

  • Jimmy G 250+ & DADams 100+ & Meyers 60+ core

  • DADams TD

  • bring back Rhamondre 70+ & TD

  • Aggro: LV -2.5… HYPE AGGRO: LV -5.5

TD Model (OG TanHo)

I added the option to see the last 3 weeks of XTD so we can see which players got opportunity and when.

BOSS Models

Route Heroes

There are some weird numbers out here, I used weighted rolling averages (50% for most recent, 33% for 2 weeks ago, and 17% for 3 weeks ago). Tyreek’s TD route was worth EIGHT EXPECTED FP. I believe that’s the highest all year. Irwin out here running some valuable routes!

TE Route Heroes

Kelce the god. Saw PFF Forecast love Conklin overs this week and i think there is good reason to love him too.

If you enjoyed this, consider sharing and subscribing (free!) please!