As always, these are just some of my thoughts, notes, and models for the upcoming week! if you enjoy this analysis or win any big bets, let me know! I would really appreciate a share as well! it is free and all
I don’t look at ownership whatsoever. I mostly try to do high leverage SGPs. So take that for what you will.
With that, let’s get into it:
Favorite Plays
Amon-Ra St. Brown: Great aDoT Matchup, more passing with all the RB injuries, high winds but who cares for low aDoT. Absolute ARSB takeover game.
LAR Passing: All of it, give me all of it. whatever it is, I want it. LAR is setup to pass the ball and pass it a LOT. I will alt this as far as I can. I do like a Diontae bring back as well, but am way more focused on LAR passing onslaught.
Christian Watson: not enough time playing to fall into models. GB has usually had high Route FP values for their WR1. GB falls into favorable territory on almost every single passing matchup graph. GB will take a few deep shots to Watson. I would not be shocked whatsoever if Watson has 130 and 2TDs. Definitely a risky play, but well worth the reward.
Plays I like (in Order)
Sam LaPorta: BOSS, Route Hero. Honestly wanted to put him in Fav plays but felt it was basically the same thesis as ARSB. I’m ALL in on both.
Aaron Jones - DEN Defense
Coming off injuries with a very inept running game while he’s been out. Offense will want to feed him if he’s truly healthy.
DeAndre Swift - BOSS
Philly loves to panic and revert into a 100% run team (they did it a few times last year). This is likely going to be amplified if Lane Johnson is out.
PHI holds onto the ball a LOT. Expect them to try harder this game so MIA isnt on the field.
Biggest worry is MIA overwhelming this gameplan early and PHI having to backtrack. if MIA scores 14 or something quickly, expect PHI to say screw it and pass regardless.
Tyreek Hill - Route Hero + desire to break record
I have a feeling that internally Hill is BEGGING McDaniel to let him crack 1000 yards this week. It would be a smart football move to let him do so.
Alt Receptions and Alt yards, maybe 2TDs? 3 for the hyper aggro. this feels like a game he COULD go off.
Travis Kelce - Route Hero
Great aDoT matchup. Alt Receptions and Yards and TD, National TE day! I expect a HUGE game from him
Austin Ekeler - BOSS
Alt Receptions all day long. Great aDoT matchup against a high MOFO defense and he’s a BOSS.
Michael Pittman & Amari Cooper: likely low owned high risk mini stack?
I know, I know this is ugly, but I think both WRs matchup very well
both Buy Lows from Josh’s Model, Pittman BOSS. IND has shown they likely passing it with Minshew. Now, the CLE is legit but they HAVE allowed a decent amount of explosive plays.
My GPP brain is loving this but that means it may be stupid
Wandale Robinson
great aDoT matchup. Alt Receptions. That’s it! wouldn’t bet anything else.
SGPs / DFS Stacks
LAR Passing Domination (he says again as his wife packs her final bag)
LAR matches up VERY well for passing. All of the weekly graphs are high on LAR passing in pretty much every way. This probably gets exacerbated by the RB injuries on LAR
Whatever the top alt lines are its probably worth a small bet on Stafford + Kupp + LAR -5.5 + Puka
Feel like we see more TDs/RZ pass attempts from receiving this week too but wouldn’t bet the house on it or anything
Diontae Johnson (BOSS) bring back 7+ alt receptions (TD if you are feeling frisky) assuming he’s healthy
GB Onslaught? (Assuming good weather)
Graphs love both passing and rushing for GB. Really lines up for deep passing (Watson 19.8 aDoT)
Watson 110+ & TD … Aaron Jones 110+ & TD for the biggest payouts
this is a hyper aggressive angle but $10 → $1800 on Fanduel
could stack this with more Love 300+ or GB -5.5 but idk if i will. not sure i trust GB THAT much
could also bring back Jeudy 80+ & TD if you are feeling frisky but definitively less confident. Jeudy is in Josh’s Buy Low and Route Hero so he has math on his side
SEA General Domination
Walker 70+, Geno 275+, Lockett(BOSS, RH) 70+ core
Lockett (better aDoT matchup) maybe some Alt Receptions for him?
Could be a breakout for JSN or Bobo? both low aDoT, not betting it tho
Walker TD probably only TD i feel okay having
bring back: Hollywood 80+ & TD - Buy Low, BOSS
wait…. this is the basically the same as last week…. run it back!
MIA Offense Domination
core: Tua 300+ & Hill 100+ frisky: Mostert 80+ | Waddle Receptions
Add MIA ML, -2.5, -5.5 if you are really wanting to push that payout
I could also see PHI trying to run the ball a LOT to keep MIA off the field
Swift alt 80+ & TD (or Hurts TD its basically the same thing)
REALLY boost that payout with MIA ML
More Math bring back if healthy: Devonta Smith - Buy Low, BOSS,
DET Passing takeover against an overrated defense?
Graphs like a low aDoT passing attack for DET esp with Dmont out
DET has historically been a ball hog (IE high time between plays with good success) BAL is fast.
Goff 300+ & ARSB 100+ & DET ML
Alt receptions for ARSB and LaPorta (both low aDoT) if you are feeling frisky
TD Model
The actual play by play model is from TanHo (your favorite analyst’s favorite analyst). I just made it into a table and tried to apply it for betting. The way to read it: Exp TD is Expected TDs based on the model. Diff is the difference between that and how many the player scored. We can see the last 3 weeks individually in the 3 rightmost columns.
BOSS Models
RBOPR is a running back opportunity metric i made a while ago. Just tells us how involved a given player is in the offense. The bosses are tiered by DFS salary and regression potential (Green>Yellow> Blue). In general, the goal of the model is to predict positive regression. This could come in the form of an explosion game or TDs!
RBs:
WRs:
TEs:
Route Heroes
I have been struggling to define this in the last few weeks but i think ive landed on something:
Above 50th percentile implied team total and 3 week WOPR
Above 15 weighted routes run (50% for last week, 33% for two weeks ago, 17% for 3 weeks ago)
Top 20 (or less) players in Route Based Expected Fantasy Points (per route run)
TEs:
The colors are just for viewing, really all of these players fall into a pretty elite territory!
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