Week 8 Thoughts and Notes
We at it again. Some new stuff 0.0
I think I overcomplicated my process this season lol. so many graphs, too much to digest. One thing I am pretty decent at tho is modeling, so lets take all the information we have been graphing and make some models with it to consolidate our thoughts.
The new models will show up later on in the read!
Favorite Plays:
Eagles Onslaught: Should have a massive play advantage, they like to score, PROE kings. My favorite stack of the week for SGPs and DFS.
Jalen 300+ & AJB 100+ & Eagles -7 core
Devonta 90+ for the brave
Swift TD (he has had a TON of RZ carries, Hurts cant steal them all)
Cooper Kupp: if i say Kupp every week, i will be right a lot i think. easy thesis, Cowboys get quick pressure better than anyone, Kupp is Stafford quick pressure target hog. Kupp 100+ & alt receptions & probably TD.
Keenan Allen: Palmer banged up, LAC projects for lots of pass attempts against a weak defense. I’d be happy going 100+ maybe some alt receptions if they look good. Keenan and Herbert missed a few big connections the past few weeks, they fix it this week. Keenan 100+ & alt receptions & probably TD.
Plays I like (In Order):
Dameon Pierce: Texans project for #1 in rush attempts this week against a meh CAR defense. Books and the public are probably taking too much stock in last week’s Singletary workload. 80+ & TD
Brandon Aiyuk: Should have regressed last week. in just about every model ive ever looked at this week. if QB can play competently, should have 8+ for 80+ and maybe TD.
Chuba Hubbard: I think its time. The time has come. Chuba will emerge 80+ & TD. This would be a fav play but there are a LOT of unknowns with CAR offense so im scared.
Chase + Tee Higgins: I like both of them? this is the cowards way out but they both line up for a good game! i swear. Chase probably dominates underneath and is the safe play. Higgins will get the risky big play targets. I will be building SGPs with Chase primarily and a secondary Higgins+Chase.
Christian Kirk (but really Calvin Ridley?): Everything, and i mean EVERYTHING points to Kirk having a great game. So naturally, Ridley is gonna pop off right? he is a buy low in Josh’s model and a Route Hero.
Zay Flowers: BOSS, route hero. Ravens should have the ball a lot and run a TON of plays. Alt receptions and light yards. probably TD?
Evan Engram: Route Hero, BOSS, Tlaws fav quick target if PIT pressure scary. not a world beater but good game seems likely
SGPs and DFS Stacks:
Quick primer… these are not all going to hit lol. They are situations in which i feel like a team has a (usually passing) advantage.
Herbert → Allen + Ekeler → -5.5
With Palmer banged up and Johnston being meh, expect a lot of Allen and Ekeler
Herbert 300+ & Allen 100+ & Ekeler TD core
add spreads to feel something
Bengals Passing FTW:
Bengals are probably going to pass the ball like 70%+ (unless the bye week changed their lives)
SF allows a lot of Single Coverage opportunities. Higgins is Burrow’s go to guy but its been a rough year.
Burrow 300+ & Chase alt receptions core
push Bengals -5.5 if you are feeling crazy. Higgins 100+ in that case
Aiyuk bring back > > >
Ravens Onslaught:
This in my mind is perfect, but somehow the Cardinals hold the ball for a while. So that’s the downfall if there is one.
Lamar passing AND rushing overs & Flowers alt receptions
add Hollywood bring back if you wanna feel cool
TD for Gus to feel like bus
Texans — Panthers Rushing crazy:
Both teams project to run the ball a lot (tho CAR is coming at the game with a new OC) against bad Run Ds
Pierce 80+ & TD & Chuba 80+ & TD core
Nico overs if you are feeling cool
Unders probably? if you are feeling REALLY cool i dont like betting totals tho
This is risky since we dont know how Sanders playtime will factor in but The Coachspeak Index likes Chuba so lets send it
Rams → Kupp → Beeg Win:
What if… DAL is bad? LAR has the offense to take advantage of play volume increase. I started off the week loving this angle, but the closer we get to sunday the less i like it
I don’t think this is LIKELY but i do see it as a real potential outcome:
LAR -5.5 & Stafford 300+ & Kupp 100+ core
Lamb bring back for the frisky
never hurts to throw in some Puka for fun — 70+
Jags get a bump in play volume:
Steelers are just awful. by a WIDE stretch
Jags should see GOOD play volume which usually means winning big. proabbly lots of shortish passes which means Engram targets
-1.5 feels disrespectful to the Jags imo
Tlaw 275+ & ETN TD & Jags -5.5 & Engram O 4.5 receptions
add Kirk if you are smart
add Ridley if you wanna feel like a genius
and push Tlaw to 300 or 325
Every Week - MIA Stack:
Just gonna do it every week i guess.
Tua 300+ & Hill 100+ core
probably waddle too but it scares me adding two pass catchers sometimes
insert MIA RB for 80+ yards and TD probably
if Mostert out, maybe push passing props to max? if it feels worth it
Falcons Domination Stack?
The Falcons are probably going to have a LOT of plays. Now, i do not know what they will do with said plays. They have had a lot of games lately where they have funneled into passing situations and TEN seems no different?
Ridder 250+ & Falcons -2.5 & Bijan 80+ core
push Falcons -5.5… maybe further… can the Titans score? really? idk?
add an Allgeir TD because you know… Arthur Smith and all but itll be nice on the odds.
Colts GO CRAZY in the air:
Colts project for the second most TOTAL plays
They are more pass heavy than the data the model has suggests with AR down
Minshew 300+ & Colts -5.5 core
add WRs if you feel frisky. Downs is technically the best at separating vs man (Saints love man)
this is a LONG shot, but nice payout. imma bet like $5.
The New Model(s)
I made a few new models with the goal of consolidating all of the graphs i usually send out. It was just too much information to sift through. So for now we have:
Predicted Pass Plays
Predicted Run Plays
These both were created using an Elastic Net on MANY team and macro game variables. The Validated R^2s are around .11 each which is not amazing BUT that’s for a raw prediction of a very complicated and hard to predict FUTURE statistic. The good news is that .11 is good enough to say “it’s directionally right?” right? Anyways, i thought it’d be good to compare the prediction to a relevant defensive stat to get an idea of +EV long odds bets we can make. As are a lot of the graphs i make, X is the primary stat, Y is the upcoming OPPONENT’s relevant defensive stat.
So, The Bengals pass the ball a TON, but are going against a team that seemingly has good coverage. I’m not sure i care (see Vikings passing on 1st down a lot). KC, LAC, WAS, PHI all in great territory for big passing games with DAL up there.
HOU, BAL, and SF all are (likely) going to run the ball a good amount! cool. CAR has a better rushing matchup than i realized (Chuba time?). Breece Hall will probably get a few chances to break a big one!
TD Model
As always, credit to TanHo for the play by play model. I am just aggregating it to try and use it each week. I sorted it a bit different, but these are only players where Actual TDs - Expected is negative (3 weeks) and sorted by last weeks TD opportunity.
Weird TD Parlay im doing: Njoku + Colby Parkinson + Demario Douglas
wont hit but odds are +33232 with boost so why not use TanHo’s model to try and make some money
BOSS MODELS
Route Heroes:
I am still not 100% how to use this tbh. I think good routes are almost like a multiplication factor on opportunity regression. Like if a player is going to regress running great routes can only help! I also think for players running great routes getting less opportunity than they should be getting → maybe they will get more opportunity for running great routes???
To me: Keenan, Aiyuk, Flowers, Diggs (who we saw get a bunch of targets), Devonta, and Ridley all stand out as interesting route based plays.
I dont think this tells us anything, but here are the TEs running the most valuable routes and getting opportunity.
Thats it!
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