NFL Week 8 Thoughts, Notes, and Statistics
Y'all KILLED it with the likes last week <3
Hey Everyone,
First off, thank you so much for liking the post last week <3 WE HAD 31 LIKES…. that is INSANE. I am very thankful. So far on the 2024 season, there are 200+ NEW subscribers to my Substack. I am so grateful.
Really, each week, all I ask is that if I am providing meaningful insight to you. Just hit that like button. You can ask the 31 people who did it last, its shockingly easy and helps me out tremendously.
I do have a quick question for y’all before we get into it
Anyways. Let’s get into week 8!
Sicko Mode SGPS
As always, I am statistics guy and not a gambling expert. I am too aggressive and like to have fun. I bet small amounts and ride the variance.
HOU vs IND
The Story:
Tail Events Model has HOU as a top passing threat this week
Stroud very good with clean pocket and Colts are bottom 3 in pressure rate and quick pressure rate.
Dell is a Route Hero + BOOM player with good PWOPR
Colts have an S tier deep aDoT advantage — likely best for Adonai or Pierce
Colts run a lot of MOFC which allows for elite WRs to be elite
The Bet:
Stroud Passing Alts (wouldn’t go past 300+)
Tank Dell 100+ maybe even a TD
Bring back Colts WR of choice between Adonai and Pierce
I did: Stroud 275+, Tank 100+, Tank TD, Pierce 70+ at +9000
CLE vs BAL
The Story:
The Browns now have a QB that is known to be aggressive. Vegas will not know how to price this and neither do we.
Browns run a lot of man. BAL WRs are both elite against man, but not scary enough to drastically change the gameplan (like Chase and Higgins were last week). I think this is called “coaching your bets” which you shouldn’t do but i cannot help myself
Jeudy both RBH and BOOM with an Aggressive QB >
BAL top 3 in the new Pass Att Over Expected model (bottom of page)
Lamar is top 10 vs MOFC and Browns run MOFC a lot
No models or anything, but Browns run a ton of man. Lamar could have a GREAT day rushing too.
The Bet:
BAL passing alts 275+ (why are the odds so nice on DK????)
Flowers and or Bateman receiving alts. Flowers not practicing so be cautious. would lean into Bateman hard in the case Zay is out.
Jeudy bring back (80+) with maybe a TD
Probably a perfect SUPER AGGRESSIVE opportunity to bet CLE spread or even ML… BAL is probably slightly overvalued and Vegas does not know how to value Winston. This is risky but could turbo charge the odds. This would include Winston Alts, Jeudy alts, and BAL WR alts as a bring back.
SF vs DAL
The Story:
SF massive aDoT advantage (similar to IND) and slight QP advantage
QRF model has a 5%+ edge for SF passing at 300+
Old Tail Events Model has SF and HOU as the top 2 passing threats this week. in “VERY GOOD” territory. This is always a good sign.
Brocky purdy is a top 3 QB against MOFC which DAL runs at a top rate in the NFL.
SF in a decent spot for the new “pass attempts over expected” model at the end of the substack
The Bet:
Purdy 300+
lean into SF WRs but lines arent up yet. Jennings will likely have better value
Aiyuk would have been a SC monster but now another SF wr likely will
Pearsall is a BOSS this week, and has a good PWOPR but with such a limited sample idk how i feel about it. IF value is there, i will bet him. maybe add TD.
Bring back would be Lamb, He’s a BOSS.
CIN vs PHI
The Story:
Burrow is a passing MOFO (top 2 against MOFO) PHI runs MOFO at top 10 rate
MOFO typically distributes the ball in an offense more so than MOFC, so a more distributed bet makes sense. I would bet Chase 80+ but wouldn’t go higher
Hurts props are SO LOW compared to what he has done. This game feels like it has offensive potential. Top 6 game in predicted Total
DeVonta smith is a top contender for “Coach, I Was Open”
Bengals are always a good tail event spot with a good QB/high offensive potential and a meh defense (bottom 10 pressure rate, bottom 12 EPA per pass allowed)
The Bet:
I like Burrow passing from data driven perspective
I like Hurts passing from a “I know he CAN do it” perspective
DeVonta is a must bet for CIWO
I don’t mind Zach Moss TD or Hurts TD
Combo: 275 from both passers, Smith 80+, Chase 80+, and TDs to feel special
I don’t have space to write about it
MIA vs ARI
Hill and Waddle both look like smash plays. everyone knows this tho.
the real smash could be ARI passing with MHJ and Wilson both in need of positive regression. bring back Waddle or Hill
General Plays I Like
Big Target Regression Candidates: Courtland Sutton / Zay Flowers / Devonta Smith
Calvin Ridley week no matter what… even if there’s a fire
Lions #2 defense in giving up FP to WRs
SC monster and FR Beast
RBH
Xavier Worthy
Last Chance to Payoff a Wedding Parlay
Tank Dell 120+
Ridley 90+
Jeudy 80+ and TD
MHJ 100+
$1 → $7300
Probability Tables
PWOPR
Route Based Heroes Table ← This model is legit… its goal is fantasy point explosions.
Keep in mind, Polk cant catch so he may see the field less than normal.
I felt like i included TOO MANY tables last time so i wanted to simplify things. This is in my opinion the most important PWOPR table. Top BOOM, with PWOPR > .4
only other PWOPR table i will include: Raw BOOM > 0 and good PWOPR (.3 +)
The Other Tables
Players that get more targets in single coverage playing teams that allow SC situations the most (top 10)
Players that see a boost in TS as first reads playing teams that allow targets to first read the most (top 10)
Play by play model to predict how many TDs a player should have aggregated at the game level and compared to how many TDs they actually have. (pbp model created by TanHo)
NEW WEIRD TABLE FOR YOU and all your likes
Using the QRF modeling approach i use for the probability tables, this is a table showing “Predicted Pass Attempts - 3 Week Average Pass Att”
The idea is to attack volume, what teams might end up passing the ball more than normal and what teams might pass the ball less than normal.
For example: The Broncos are expected to throw the ball 1.5 times more than normal this week relative to their 3 week avg. The Seahawks are expected to throw the ball 4.3 less times than their 3 week average. These can obviously change based on game situation. Most of the things i do focus on efficiency so the idea here is to focus on volume.
Awesome! That’s it!
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How ‘Bout Them DAWGS?!?!?!?
Tell me about the Boss Models - is it some type of player ranking for the week?